Japan's earthquake shocks the global economy, China's import sector is affected

The hard hit in the northeastern industrial zone may lead to short-term shock and reconstruction of A shares, which is expected to boost global trade.

On the 11th, an earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale in the northeastern part of Japan caused a large-scale tsunami. In addition to causing a large number of casualties, it has created a powerful shock wave to the Japanese economy in the recovery and the global economy.

The impact of Japan’s recovery process as the world’s third-largest economy, whether the global economy will be affected, and how China’s economy and capital markets will be affected will raise concerns.

Japanese economy

The car industry suffers the most

In view of the continuing losses caused by secondary disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis, Jim O'Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Board of Directors, said: "It is still difficult to judge the scope of damage and the amount of losses." However, the economic losses caused by the earthquake will mainly come from Two aspects.

The first is the direct loss from the impact of the earthquake and tsunami. Although the northeastern part of the earthquake-stricken area is not the most important industrial area in Japan, the region also concentrates on many important industrial factories such as automobiles, nuclear power, petrochemicals, and semiconductors. The economic scale of the region accounts for Japan’s gross domestic product ( About 8% of GDP). At present, the automobile industry suffers the most serious losses. According to the Japanese Kyodo News Agency, eight Japanese automakers such as Hino, Mitsubishi, Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Daihatsu will temporarily close their factories in Japan on the 14th. Parts supply was blocked after the earthquake.

Among them, a total of 22 factories in Toyota, Honda and Nissan, the three major Japanese automakers, have been closed. The reporter learned from the Chinese companies of the above three companies that the disaster occurred on the weekend. Although the Chinese company had contact with the headquarters, there was no detailed data on the specific damages. As for when to resume production, it depends on the disaster situation.

According to the relevant person in charge of the China Import Automobile Trading Center, the three Japanese car companies that have been discontinued include Lexus, Infiniti and Acura. Among them, Toyota imports ranked third, second only to Mercedes-Benz and BMW. Nissan and Honda are fewer, ranking outside the top ten.

Second, the earthquake will lead to a supply chain crisis. Although the major Japanese manufacturers were not catastrophically damaged, the transportation was interrupted due to the earthquake, the supply of raw materials was affected, and the finished products could not be shipped to the airport or port. As Japan's position in the global industrial chain is extremely important, the supply chain crisis will bring losses to Japanese manufacturers and even global manufacturers within a few months.

Financial situation will worsen

The earthquake in Japan coincided with the difficult struggle between the Japanese government and the fiscal deficit. At present, Japan's debt has accounted for about 200% of GDP, which is higher than the debt level of any developed country. After the earthquake, the Japanese government will inevitably add a budget, which will undoubtedly worsen Japan’s fiscal situation.

International rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded Japan's long-term debt rating in January, while Moody's also downgraded Japan's sovereign credit rating outlook to negative last month. Analysts worry that the earthquake will increase Japan's debt risk and increase its government financing costs.

The economy may present a "V" shape rebound

Last year, the Japanese economy rebounded strongly, and the annual GDP actually grew by 3.9%, the fastest growth rate in 20 years. However, its economic growth was mainly driven by the first quarter, and the economy was in a downturn in the last three quarters. In the fourth quarter, real GDP even shrank by 0.3%. Economists had expected that the Japanese economy would regain its momentum in the first quarter of this year.

Due to the shutdown of many factories in Japan, power shortages, and consumer confidence, the Japanese economy will be hit hard in the short term. Wolfgang Lem, a Japanese expert on German commercial banks, said: "The Japanese economy may still shrink slightly in the first quarter of this year." Li Qisi, chief economist of Standard Chartered Bank, believes that there is a risk of stagflation in the Japanese economy in the short term.

But since then, with the development of reconstruction work, the Japanese economy may show a "V" shape rebound. After the Kobe earthquake in 1995, the Japanese economy showed such a trajectory. David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities in New York, said that funds from government, insurance, private companies, and individuals will be invested in the reconstruction process, which will create jobs, and the earthquake-stricken energy and construction sector will Greatly boosted. Some analysts expect Japan's economic growth rate to rise to 3% at an annual rate in the next three quarters.

Significantly insufficient supply of agricultural products and food

The earthquake has caused a significant impact on Japanese agricultural products and food logistics. The reporter found in the supermarket in Tokyo on the 13th that vegetables, milk, bread and other commodities were in short supply, and some were even out of stock. Some wholesale markets have seen price increases.

After visiting several supermarkets on the same day, the reporter found that the supply of agricultural products and food was obviously insufficient. The seafood that is in high demand from Japanese such as vegetables, dairy products and tuna was in short supply. Meat, bread, dried noodles and so on were all out of stock.

The latest survey released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan also confirmed this point. According to the report, due to the earthquake damage, in addition to the stoppage of the vegetable and fruit market in the northeast region, the phenomenon that agricultural products and processed foods in other regions cannot be delivered on time is also very serious.

China's economy

The main impact is reflected in the import field

Mei Xinyu, an associate researcher at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with China Business News that as one of the world's top industrial powers and exporting countries, the earthquake that Japan has encountered is bound to the world economy and industry. Produces a visible impact. Specific to China, the biggest negative impact on industry and foreign trade will be reflected in the import field.

China imports a large number of Japanese high-tech products, upstream intermediate products and equipment. The utilization rate of some industries such as electronics and automobiles may be reduced due to the suspension of supply of upstream products in Japan. Some new construction and renovation projects may have to slow down due to the interruption of Japanese equipment production and delivery processes.

The most affected companies are imported Japanese equipment and electromechanical, optical and other accessories, because these companies import from Japan either substitute a small number of imported sources, or they are themselves "Japan's core components - China's processing of finished products - global market sales" A part of the chain of industrial division of labor, at one time, there is no way to find alternative sources of supply.

In addition to the possible impact, the earthquake in Japan also means huge reconstruction needs.

As the world's largest building materials and steel producer, as the largest country in the world's construction market and the top exporter of construction engineering services, China's related industries are expected to gain a certain share.

Continental component manufacturers or substitutes

After the earthquake, many well-known Japanese electronics companies, including Sony, Toshiba and Matsushita, closed the factories. Experts believe that it is expected that the short-term inclusion of memory chips, LCD panel components, etc. will be temporarily out of stock, and will have an adverse impact on the global electronics industry.

Yang Yunjiao, China's flat display manager of the International Semiconductor Equipment Materials Industry Association (SEMI), believes that affected by the earthquake, as long as it is related to Japanese panel manufacturers, both upstream and downstream will be affected. The disaster-affected area is Toshiba's manufacturing base, and its manufacturing operations involve memory and display imaging components, both of which are core components of the end product. The resulting reduction in terminal production will indirectly affect the purchase of display panels and modules.

Gao Xiaoqiang, manager of the research department of Tuoba Industrial Research Institute, pointed out that the suspension of production or the loss of transportation logistics of Japanese related manufacturers is difficult to recover quickly, and relevant manufacturers in mainland China may become substitutes. In addition, due to the earthquake causing greater damage to certain home appliances, it may increase market demand.

>>Company response

Guangzhou Automobile Group will not have much impact on production

The day before yesterday, Zeng Qinghong, deputy of the National People's Congress and general manager of Guangzhou Automobile Group, said in an interview that since the auto parts produced by GAC have basically achieved localization, the impact of the earthquake in Japan on GAC's production capacity will not be too great.

According to Zeng Qinghong, the localization ratio of GAC's model parts has reached 90%, and some models such as the Accord are more than 95%. Therefore, the transportation obstacles caused by the earthquake in Japan will not have much impact on the production of GAC. As for some of the non-domesticized parts, it is not only Japan that can be produced, but can be solved by adjusting the global supply chain. Of course, this adjustment may have some impact on time. Zeng Qinghong revealed that GAC is currently investigating the specific impact.

China COSCO has no impact on the company so far

Yesterday, China Ocean Shipping Group listed flagship COSCO Holdings investor relations department general manager Ming Dong told reporters that the earthquake in Japan has so far had no impact on the company.

It is reported that China COSCO is China's major ocean-going and offshore shipping and logistics company. It also has investment in terminals. Even its subsidiaries own Tianjin and Shanghai-Japan passenger and freighter. Among them, the luxury international passenger and cargo liner "Yanjing" is Engaged in passenger and cargo weekly transportation between Tianjin, China and Kobe, Japan.

For the impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, Mingdong said that the tsunami is mainly affected by the offshore. Once the ship is sailing at sea, it will hardly be affected by the tsunami. As of last night, there is no impact on the ships they are transporting at sea. report. Regarding the impact of offshore shipping and terminals in China, he said that it has no impact at present.

Global economy

>>Trade

Post-disaster reconstruction may boost global trade

Given Japan's important position in the global industrial chain, the temporary export disruption caused by the earthquake will inevitably affect other countries' enterprises. For example, the Japanese chip industry accounts for one-fifth of the global market, and the best-selling electronics like the Apple iPad are also heavily dependent on Japanese manufacturers' NAND flash memory. For example, Boeing's 787 "Dream" passenger aircraft's wings, main landing gear and other important parts are provided by Japanese manufacturers.

However, Jeffrey Landsberg, head of the Komodo Research and Consulting Company in the United States, pointed out that "from a global perspective, the impact of the Japanese earthquake is only short-term." Moody's economist Alfredo. Courdine even believes that Japan's post-disaster reconstruction may have a certain boost to global trade.

>>Exchange rate

The yen has risen sharply against the US dollar

Goldman Sachs Chairman Jim O'Neill believes that since Japan's current recovery is largely driven by exports, avoiding the appreciation of the yen will be the key to Japan's economic recovery. However, after the 11th earthquake, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar in the Tokyo foreign exchange market rose by 1.4%.

In anticipating the recent factors affecting the yen's exchange rate, analysts pointed out that companies should respond to reconstruction and insurance companies to sell overseas assets in response to claims and other measures will lead to the return of funds to Japan, pushing up the yen exchange rate. In addition, the Bank of Japan is expected to further relax monetary policy on the 14th, which will affect the yen exchange rate.

>> Resources

Crude oil and commodity prices fell

Japan is the third largest oil importer in the world. Due to the earthquake that caused the destruction of the country's refining facilities and the reduction of import demand, the international oil price fell sharply on the 11th. The New York market crude oil futures price fell below $100 per barrel for the first time in a week.

New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil trader Raymond Kaben said: "The earthquake in Japan will push oil prices down, but it will not last." He believes that according to past experience, after the occurrence of major natural disasters on an international scale, the initial reaction of oil prices is It will fall, but it will rebound in the short term, as the reconstruction process will increase the demand for crude oil and thus push up the price of oil.

In addition to crude oil imports, Japan is also a big country in iron ore demand. Due to the suspension of production in many domestic steel mills, analysts expect Japan's demand for iron ore to decrease by 20 million tons in the short term, which will constitute a short-term pressure on prices.

Weibo hot discussion

Ye Tan: I think the earthquake in Japan will have an impact on the Chinese economy, but the impact will not be too great. This situation in Japan will have some psychological impact on China. For example, China's stock market will also fall, resource product prices may fall, but the long-term very large impact may not exist.

Shi Tianfang: Although the earthquake has brought great losses to Japan, it also brings great opportunities. Because the work of rebuilding homes will greatly increase Japan's market demand and employment rate. This has brought certain benefits to the relatively low level of the Japanese economy.

Cao Xiaobao's pony tail: Well, the problem should be small. If the world's third-largest economy does not have a sudden earthquake, it is hard to say. The key is that the economy has had two earthquakes in three days, and the experience has come out. The Great Hanshin Earthquake in the past few years seems to have recovered soon.

Fenglin Cruiser: The earthquake in Japan gives China's economic enlightenment: China should rethink the strategic planning of nuclear energy, and develop more renewable energy sources such as wind energy, solar energy, geothermal energy and hydropower in new energy planning; most of Japan's important economic industries It is densely distributed in several major port cities. This time, the damage was more serious in the earthquake and tsunami attacks. Japan has advanced earthquake and tsunami warning systems, but it still causes great losses. China should learn from it.

The Twenty-ninth God: The March 31 earthquake in Japan was a disaster for Japan. To a certain extent, it was also a catastrophe for the world. The pillar role of Japan's manufacturing industry in the world economy is obvious to all. Its talents, production volume, and production level are irreplaceable in more than 90% of the world's countries. We all wish Japan a safe future.

A share impact

Internal or external causes may cause short-term shocks

>>The market

Since the impact of the A shares was close at the time of the earthquake last Friday, the market has not yet known what impact the earthquake will have on the real economy. Therefore, market participants have mostly attributed the late diving of the day to the impact of sudden events. After two days of news accumulation over the weekend, including the suspension of production by large companies such as Toshiba and Toyota, the leakage of nuclear power plants, and the obstruction of the real economy such as the obstruction of travel to Japan, the spread of information in the real market quickly spread, so will the A-share market today and this week appear? "aftershock"?

In this regard, Great Wall Securities analyst Gao Xing believes that in view of the current structure of the domestic A-share market, the earthquake is not enough to constitute a decisive factor affecting the market trend, but it will become a key factor to help the empty side win in the game. Gao Xing believes that the current A-share market has experienced a period of rising, continue to surge pressure, and there is a need for adjustment in the near future. Specifically, the market has different opinions on the valuation of blue chip sectors such as coal and nonferrous metals. The organization generally believes that the blue chip sector lacks upward momentum despite its valuation advantage. On the contrary, although small and medium-cap stocks are under high valuation pressure, they are in two sessions. Under the impetus of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the driving force is strong, especially in all industries, and it is expected to grow into a blue chip tomorrow.

In addition, the CPI data released by the Bureau of Statistics last Friday was higher than market expectations, and inflation expectations were strengthened again. It does not rule out the possibility of the central bank to raise the deposit reserve ratio again and even raise interest rates. The low valuation of the banking sector has limited opportunities in the near future. Under the purchase restriction, the weighted sector real estate stocks are also squeezed. Therefore, blue chips and weights have been blocked at the same time. The reason for the recent Shanghai stock index standing 3,000 points is not sufficient. In this context, the sudden events of the Japanese earthquake may become a key factor in the long and short game. Pessimistically, the Shanghai Composite Index may fall back to around 2800 points in the near term.

Huang Tingkai, senior investment consultant of Ping An Securities Financial Street Business Department, believes that although the Japanese economy is in the process of gradual recovery, the enormous energy of its economic entities can not be underestimated. If the real economy is seriously damaged in the earthquake, it will have a shock effect on the surrounding markets including A-shares. The fall of the major indices in the Asia-Pacific region on Friday reflected the market's concerns.

Da Yong Securities Investment Consultant Fu Yongzhen stressed that since the impact of the earthquake on the A-share market has been reflected on Friday, the stock index operation will return to the fundamental changes in the domestic economy this week. The current focus is still on inflation expectations. And the impact of expected changes in liquidity on the operation of the stock index. The earthquake in Japan will not change the trajectory of A-shares, but in the short-term, the stock index will fluctuate. It is recommended that investors not blindly expand the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the stock index, and more focus on some of the influencing factors of the A-share operation.

>>Plate

Short-term opportunities such as electronics and automobiles

Wang Li, a researcher in the electronic components industry of Galaxy Securities, said through his Weibo that due to psychological expectations, poor traffic and power outages, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami events will push up global DRAM (the most common system memory of dynamic random access memory) in the short term. The price level of NAND flash memory (computer flash memory devices), display screens and other electronic components. A-share chip design company Datang Telecom (17.73, -0.31, -1.72%), National Technology (128.390, 5.40, 4.39%), production of rainbow shares of glass substrates (15.58, -0.20, -1.27%), production of industrial capacitors The Jianghai shares (30.63, 0.75, 2.51%) and so on may be affected by the event in the short term, and there may be trading opportunities in the component sector.

However, Wang Li also reminded that Japanese electronics manufacturers' plants and equipment are generally not damaged, but other factors caused by the earthquake will have an impact on the global electronics supply chain in the short term. Traffic disruption will affect delivery; large-scale power outages will affect the normal operation of the plant and reduce production capacity; in addition, employee commuting and raw material supply will also affect the production of various manufacturers. Most manufacturers are expected to resume production in the near future, and the A-share component industry is limited.

The second is the hot discussion on the domestic auto and parts market caused by the suspension of production by Toyota and Honda. CITIC Securities (14.37, -0.22, -1.51%) Li Chunbo, chief analyst of the automotive industry, believes that only due to the impact of the earthquake itself, it is expected that the relevant enterprises will not suspend production for a long time, and domestic auto and parts manufacturers are generally not affected by this. . In the short term, the earthquake may cause tight supply of imported cars, and the competition pattern of the domestic auto industry is slightly optimistic. From a medium and long-term perspective, earthquake factors will promote the strengthening of domestic Japanese cars to localized production, and the supply chain may be transferred to Completed domestically, it is relatively rich in opportunities for domestic auto parts manufacturers.

In addition, from the comparison of the degree of destructive power and the number of casualties in Japan, the Japanese earthquake prevention and disaster reduction technology is worth learning.

Huang Tingkai believes that this may increase the demand for domestic seismic materials, promote the upgrading of construction steel from secondary steel to tertiary steel and special steel, or promote the special steel and tertiary steel production enterprises of A shares. Future demand such as *ST vanadium and titanium, Hebei Iron and Steel (3.84, -0.03, -0.78%) will increase. In addition, with the gradual improvement of China's urbanization level, the demand for disaster prevention and mitigation of municipal public facilities will increase, which will accelerate the construction of digital cities. It is worthy of attention as the shares (28.59, -0.47, -1.62%); in addition, the public transportation system The company's brilliant technology (61.26, -1.74, -2.76%) for disaster prevention and mitigation system design can also be concerned.

Du Zhengzheng, an analyst at Bohai Securities, believes that after the earthquake, food and medicine will become the most scarce materials. International assistance may increase government procurement of related materials, and domestic related sectors may face short-term opportunities. In addition, post-disaster reconstruction will also increase demand for infrastructure materials such as cement and building materials, and the active board house producers (18.48, 1.44, 8.45%) may face opportunities.

Nuclear power and resource stocks are under pressure

Today, as nuclear power gradually becomes a new type of energy, the news that the leakage of human nuclear power from Japan’s nuclear power plants is tantamount to a blockbuster that has caused widespread concern in the international market. Huang Xiangbin, chief strategist of Cinda Securities, believes that this will increase the market's psychological pressure on the safe use of nuclear power, which will have a certain negative impact on the nuclear power concept stocks in the A-share market. Fu Yongzhen believes that the news of the leakage of nuclear power plants may lead to market concerns about offshore fishing. Aquaculture may be exposed to radiation, so there will be some psychological pressure on the offshore fishing sector. However, given that the current situation of nuclear leakage in China's seas is still unclear, the impact of this sector is mainly short-term psychological factors.

In addition, Japan, which lacks its own resources, is a large country with upstream industrial raw materials such as iron ore, coal, and non-ferrous metals. After the occurrence of strong earthquakes, due to the suspension of production and transportation of some factories, procurement was temporarily interrupted, and the global energy pattern was greatly affected. Huang Xiangbin believes that Japan's short-term demand decline will cause coal, iron ore and other resource types to bear certain pressures in the short term. However, after the short-term demand is reduced, with the development of post-disaster reconstruction, Japan's demand will pick up again, and it will hopefully pull the price of such resource products to rise again. Therefore, the impact of the earthquake in Japan on resources such as iron ore, coal, and basic non-ferrous metals is short-term.

Japan’s tourism industry has been hit hard by the earthquake, but in the impact on the A-share market, the views of the industry do not seem to be uniform. Fu Yongzhen believes that the earthquake in Japan will directly lead to a sharp drop in passenger flow to Japan, which will have the most direct impact on companies with tourism operations, such as China National Travel Service (29.18, -0.49, -1.65%). Companies such as CYTS (15.63, -0.15, -0.95%) will be affected, but given the overall tourism operations and attractions of these companies are better, the impact may be relatively limited. Du Zhengzheng believes that the domestic tourists who went to Japan for the day tour still have many other options, and the overseas tourists who went to Japan for the day tour even changed to inbound tourism, so the impact on domestic tourism enterprises is very limited.

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