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The non-ferrous metal industry, which has a high fever and is facing a cold water. According to various sources, non-ferrous metals will enter a period of controlled growth. The upcoming 12th Five-Year Plan for non-ferrous metals industry will control the production of ten major metals within the annual growth rate of 8%. Since the 21st century, China's non-ferrous metals industry has experienced two periods of rapid growth. According to Chen Quanxun, president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the investment in China's non-ferrous metals industry grew at an average annual rate of 32.7%. Revenue growth of 29.4%, China has been the largest country in the production of non-ferrous metals for many years. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by 2010, the output of ten non-ferrous metals industries including aluminum, copper, lead and zinc reached 31.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and the output consumption accounted for one-third of the world. The main business income was about 3 trillion yuan, and its share of GDP increased from 1.19% in 2005 to 1.99%. However, although China's non-ferrous metals industry is “big†but not “strongâ€, according to Chen Quanxun, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the profit growth of China's non-ferrous metals industry was only 18.2%, much lower than investment growth, preliminary estimates, 2010 The industry-wide sales margin is only about 4.8%, much lower than the previous average of 10%. The asset profit margin is only 6%, which is equivalent to the bank's long-term loan interest rate, "equivalent to working for the bank." Kang Yi, president of the former China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that in order to effectively control the excessive growth of smelting capacity and strengthen the non-ferrous metal industry, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†proposed to control the growth rate of non-ferrous metal production. "China's non-ferrous metals industry is entirely likely to become a replica of China's steel industry." Shang Fushan, vice president of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, told this reporter that the expansion of China's non-ferrous metal production is not supported by related minerals, and with China's non-ferrous metals The rapid growth of metal smelting capacity is likely to become a “processor†role like the Chinese steel industry. China's non-ferrous metals industry has already had a high fever, especially aluminum. Xiong Weiping, chairman of China Aluminum Corporation (601600.SH), China's largest aluminum producer, said at the beginning of 2011 that China's aluminum production capacity in 2010 exceeded 21 million tons, far higher than 16 million. Tons of consumption. In fact, in 2009, the Chinese government promulgated the “Notice on Suppressing Overcapacity in Some Industries and Repeated Construction to Guide the Healthy Development of the Industryâ€, suggesting that there is a surplus in the electrolytic aluminum industry and demanding that its development be curbed. However, the above measures did not limit the rapid expansion of the electrolytic aluminum industry. In 2009, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 18 million tons, and the production capacity growth rate in 2010 was 16.7%, which is still in double-digit high-speed growth. At the same time, however, the use rate of electrolytic aluminum in China has dropped from overload to 60%. China's non-ferrous metal control speed seems to be inevitable, but many non-ferrous metal producers who do not want to be named said that the demand for non-ferrous metals caused by China's rapid economic growth cannot be curbed, and non-ferrous metal smelting projects generally belong to local major projects, driving GDP. The effect is obvious. Finally, "If the card is really 8%, who is this 8%? What is the basis?". “The development of the non-ferrous metal industry will eventually have to pass the market.†The documentary committee of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has repeatedly stressed to the reporter that the administrative intervention will have a certain impact on the development of the non-ferrous metal industry, but ultimately it will remain “marketâ€. If you have the final say, such as aluminum, when the market price is 15,000 yuan / ton, you can't do it, you can only go out."