Iron ore market before the Spring Festival will enter the shock adjustment stage

The public data shows that the dependence of China's steel production on imported minerals still exceeds 60%, so it is very sensitive to imported ore prices. The increase in the price of imported ore has far exceeded the increase in the price of finished products. Signs of speculation have been highlighted. Therefore, the import ore price has already been suspected of being “airborne”. Buyers' willingness to purchase carefully will gradually increase, and both supply and demand sides will enter a stalemate. The recent apparent decline in trading volume is the best evidence. Whether or not steel prices can support ore prices is still unknown. Despite the fact that domestic steel prices have also increased by a relatively small margin recently, there is still a big gap compared with iron ore, and the cost pressures of steel mills continue to rise. The mainstream steel mills have recently raised the ex-factory price of steel, but whether the follow-up steel prices can support the rise in ore prices is still unknown.

Lang Li, an analyst at Lange Steel Network, said that the main state-owned steel mills in China usually have one month or so of stockpiles for their production stocks. Today's iron ore prices are so crazy that steel mills will naturally have to wait and see what the market will be. Take a cautious approach. However, the speed of price increase during this period is too rapid, and it carries a considerable risk. Therefore, the spot iron ore price continues to rise. In addition, the current domestic ore can not meet the demand of steel mills, foreign miners intend to control the price through the control of shipments to maintain the current high price, therefore, the soaring ore price is also a lot of artificial factors.

Li Rui said that the current high price of $150 for imported ore prices has certain risks for the average ore price in 2013. If the steel prices can continue to pick up in the later period, the ore price may still maintain a certain room for upward growth. However, if the recovery of steel prices is affected, the rise in iron ore prices will inevitably have to be adjusted back.