Methanol prices are expected to rise later

Methanol ** experienced signs of stabilization after a month of decline. The macro news was positive, the methanol plant was overhauled in April, and the downstream investigation and fear period was over. Demand was expected to recover. We believe that the short-to-medium term methanol level may have already appeared and it is expected to rise in the later period.

The domestic HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is highly innovative, and the favorable macro environment will push up commodity prices. The March manufacturing PMI, which was released on March 21st, rebounded to 51.7, a rebound from the low level set last month, and continued to be above the watershed for five consecutive months, confirming that the Chinese economy is continuing to recover. In the sub-index, the new orders index rebounded, and the export orders index was lower than the new orders index, indicating that domestic demand recovered better than foreign demand. The other output index also rebounded sharply, indicating that the growth in manufacturing production is encouraging.

The recovery of domestic economic data is verified. The United States continues to looseen the environment. The improvement of the foreign environment and the domestic economy will have an overall positive effect on the demand for commodities.

The operating rate of the methanol plant will remain at a medium level, and the centralized inspection and repair period for equipment will be approaching. The supply of methanol is expected to decrease, and the price will stabilize and stabilize. Since March, the operating rate of methanol plants has been maintained at a level of 55%-57%, which has slightly decreased near the end of the month. With the advent of the overhaul season, most companies have developed maintenance plans. According to the incomplete statistics of Treasure Island, the devices for overhaul in March and April are mainly concentrated in the northwest and Shandong regions. East and South China are also involved. With the start of the overhaul of some companies in the near future, the price of methanol has stopped falling.

Environmental concerns on formaldehyde and concerns of dimethyl ether companies have passed. New demands for methanol to olefins will gradually develop, and methanol downstream is expected to improve. ** During the period of environmental investigation, formaldehyde enterprises in Shandong and Hebei started to fall to 3-40%. The recent start of formaldehyde production enterprises has gradually resumed, and parts of Shandong and Hebei have recovered to 7-80%, and the price of formaldehyde has risen by 20 yuan - 50 yuan / ton, and in the low methanol price, the profits of formaldehyde enterprises have changed slightly, and the demand for sheet materials in some regions has gradually increased. The operating rate of dimethyl ether decreased around March 15th. Although the strict investigation atmosphere was over, the price of liquefied gas dropped, and the sales of dimethyl ether was also not good. The downstream dimethyl ether of methanol would not sell well in the off-season consumption. . Recently, the methanol-to-olefins project in Inner Mongolia has outsourced methanol, and some units of Ningbo Haoyuan also have methanol from the Mainland. Because the methanol-to-olefin consumption of methanol is relatively high, the demand for methanol in the later period will be considerable. Downstream methanol will gradually improve in the event of improved demand for formaldehyde and increased olefin start-up.

The Methanol 09 contract has a stronger tendency, with an increase in spreads across the period, and market sentiment preference. The spread between the 09 contract and the 05 contract has increased from 80 yuan at the beginning of the month to 146 yuan. The stronger spread indicates that the future trend of methanol is expected to be better. In addition, although the external disk price has a certain decline in the near future, at the level of 366 US dollars / ton, but equivalent to domestic prices at 2,820 yuan / ton, while the Jiangsu region, the price is only about 2,725 yuan, internal and external disk price inversion will limit the further decline in the port of methanol prices.