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As early as the 1950s, China began research on polysilicon, the earliest being the Luoyang Semiconductor Factory and the Silicon Semiconductor Factory. Subsequently, along with the development of semiconductor technology, China has successively established a number of polysilicon plants in Shaanxi and Hebei, or set up polysilicon workshops in some chemical plants. In the 1960s, the decade of the "Cultural Revolution" interrupted the development of China's polysilicon. After the reform and opening up, because the main idea of ​​China's electronics industry is to reorganize the machine and light devices, polysilicon as the upstream of the device is even more scorned, leading to the stagnation of China's polysilicon research, technology far behind Europe and the United States.
In 2005, the adoption of the German Renewable Energy Law triggered a boom in the development of the photovoltaic industry. Since the demand for polycrystalline silicon for photovoltaic cells is much greater than the demand for silicon in the semiconductor industry, the demand for polysilicon has soared, and the price of polysilicon has stabilized for more than 20 US dollars per kilogram for 20 or 30 years. The level has soared. In 2005, the price per kilogram of polysilicon reached 50 US dollars, more than 100 US dollars at the end of 2006, and more than 300 US dollars at the end of 2007. By August 2008, the price of polysilicon reached its peak, and the spot price per kilogram reached 480 US dollars. "The Silicone is the king" became the creed of the photovoltaic industry at that time.
The soaring price has attracted a lot of investment. In contrast, Chinese investors are much more crazy than foreign investors. In 2006, Luoyang Semiconductor Factory established Luoyang Silicon, and the Silicon Semiconductor Factory separated Sichuan Xinguang and began to engage in large-scale production of polysilicon. Later, the semiconductor factory and the Dongfang Steam Turbine Factory jointly established Dongqi Fuqi and continued to engage in the production of polysilicon. However, at the beginning, the progress of these companies did not go smoothly. Until 2008, the whole of China produced hundreds of tons.
However, high profits continue to attract large amounts of investment. Sichuan Yongxiang, Wanzhou Daquan, Qinghai Asian Silicon Industry, Ningxia Sunshine, Yangzhou Shunda, Erdos, etc., as if overnight, the country has established nearly 100 polysilicon enterprises of all sizes. It is estimated that the investment of polysilicon enterprises is as high as 140 billion yuan nationwide.
The financial tsunami that began in September 2008 caused polysilicon prices to fall from $480 to less than $50 in six months, and many polysilicon companies stopped production. However, in 2009, the photovoltaic industry became the industry with the earliest recovery in many industries. The price of polysilicon began to rise from 50 US dollars, and in 2010, it returned to more than 90 US dollars. These polysilicon companies started to produce, and many of them actually made some money during this period and recovered some of the funds.
The rapid development of the photovoltaic industry reached its peak in the first quarter of 2011. Since April 2011, due to the European debt crisis and the US double-reverse, the market's confidence in the photovoltaic industry has been hit, and the growth rate of the photovoltaic market is lower than expected, resulting in a relatively surplus capacity of the photovoltaic industry. Chinese companies began to carry out brutal bidding in order to withdraw funds, making the price of photovoltaic modules all the way down, from 15 yuan / watt in the first quarter of 2011 to 3.8 yuan / watt in early 2013. The price of polysilicon is naturally not spared, and the price has dropped from RMB 700,000/ton to RMB 140,000/ton. At the beginning of 2013, it even went to an ultra-low price of RMB 80,000/ton. The cost of most of China's polysilicon manufacturers is more than 250,000 yuan / ton, so more than 90% of polysilicon plants stopped production, it is a natural sight. In 2012, China imported more than 76,000 tons of polysilicon, while domestic production was less than 30,000 tons.
In the two troughs of polysilicon experienced after 2008, the first financial tsunami that began in September 2008 was fierce and fierce, but it recovered faster, and the trough only lasted for more than half a year; it started in 2011. The second global economic depression in April was a long-term downward adjustment. The decline was slow, but the duration was very long. Until now, in May 2013, there was no sign of recovery. The total price drop caused by the two crises to polysilicon was similar. For the first time, the decline reached 90%, from 480 USD/kg to 50 USD/kg; the second time was from 700,000 RMB/ton. To 100,000 yuan / ton, the decline has also reached 85%. But the damage done to the polysilicon industry is much more serious the second time, almost deadly.
Cold cracks from foreign manufacturers
It is worth noting that in these two crises, the international polysilicon manufacturers suffered much less damage than China's polysilicon enterprises. As mentioned above, China's polysilicon enterprises are now largely out of production, including Ningxia Sunshine and other companies that have declared bankruptcy, and many others have announced that they "may never return to work." Before the first crisis, the international polysilicon manufacturers were known as the "seven giants", Germany WACKER, Norway's REC, the US's HEMLOCK and MEMC, Japan's Mitsubishi, Deshan, these international giants in two crises, Although profits have fallen, or there have been losses, they have not reached the level of bankruptcy. Why is this?
As early as the "financial storm" of 1998, these international polysilicon giants had experienced a painful lesson. At that time, the IT bubble made the output of chips for computers and communications increase. These manufacturers also carried out large-scale expansion campaigns. However, the financial turmoil and the subsequent IT bubble burst, causing the demand for semiconductor chips to drop, leading to global Almost all polysilicon plants have no capacity to expand production, and billions of dollars have gone. Once bitten, twice shy. With that painful lesson as a "ready of the past", these manufacturers looked at the rise in the price of polysilicon from a very cautious attitude during the rise of the photovoltaic industry from 2005 to 2007. They did not expand their production for the sake of profit, but waited for it to see how long PV can support the government-subsidized market. Therefore, on the occasion of the financial tsunami in 2008, they did not suffer much. Of course, their cautious attitude also makes these manufacturers miss the opportunity to make huge profits. Because, when the price of polysilicon rose to 400 US dollars / kg, the price of these polysilicon giants is because of the "long-term" price signed with most users, only for the old customers at the price of 70 US dollars / kg Sales.
Since the middle of 2009, the photovoltaic industry has set off a second climax, and these giants have also begun a steady expansion plan. WACKER's production capacity has increased from 3,500 tons in 2007 to 20,000 tons, and the capacity of HEMLOCK has increased from 5,000 tons in 2008 to 50,000 tons. The rest have also doubled to several times capacity expansion. Although the speed of expansion is very fast, Chinese entrepreneurs have neglected the fact that foreign manufacturers have been controlling the production cost of polysilicon for $25/year due to 40 years of production experience and process optimization. Below kilograms, most domestic manufacturers are above $40. This makes the competition between China and foreign polysilicon manufacturers at the beginning, it is not a starting line. However, the high market price at that time made this problem that proved to be a fatal injury to China's polysilicon enterprises has been ignored.
If we can give Chinese manufacturers enough production time, Chinese companies can gradually reduce their own costs through process optimization. However, the ruthless international polysilicon giants decided not to let Chinese companies have the opportunity to survive this important phase of cost reduction. Thus, with the second depression that began in 2011, the international polysilicon giant began a price war against Chinese polysilicon companies.
The second round of polysilicon prices after 2011 was not provoked by Chinese companies, but was initiated by international manufacturers. Moreover, the curve of the decline in polysilicon prices in the international market is almost in line with the cost reduction curve of China's best-performing polysilicon companies. Therefore, this has formed that from April 2011, the cost of only one polysilicon enterprise in China can be roughly equal to the market price, while the rest of the majority of polysilicon enterprises will lose more than 100,000 yuan per ton, some The ton even has to lose more than 200,000 yuan. For polysilicon plants with annual production capacity of several thousand tons or more, this means a loss of several hundred million yuan per year. No factory can withstand such huge losses for a long time, and no factory has to bear such losses. Therefore, the large-scale shutdown of China's polysilicon plants becomes a necessity.
However, the polysilicon process unit is not free to idle. Typically, critical equipment and piping will be scrapped due to corrosion if the production is discontinued for more than two years. Originally, these two years are the most important cost transition period for Chinese polysilicon enterprises. At this stage, the process should be optimized to reduce costs, but now they can only look at the rectification tower, synthesis tower, hydrogen that they have spent huge amounts of money. The chlorination device, pipelines, and reduction devices are slowly rusted and scrapped, and their investment is gradually turned into dust. This tragic scene that makes Chinese companies cry and tears is the plan and goal of the international polysilicon giant.
In early 2013, international polysilicon manufacturers gave China's polysilicon a final blow. At this time, the price of polysilicon fell below 120,000 yuan / ton, which is the cost price of 20 US dollars / kg of international manufacturers, this price, so that China's lowest cost of GCL-Poly has also suffered losses. Fortunately, this price only recovered to less than two months and returned to the international manufacturer's cost line of 140,000 yuan / ton, but even so, GCL-Poly lost a loss of 350 million Hong Kong dollars in 2012. This is already the best performance of China's polysilicon companies in 2012.
The life of Siemens law: high cost
The photovoltaic subsidy in Germany objectively made China the world's largest producer of photovoltaic modules. Although the United States has not subsidized such a large amount of photovoltaics as Germany, the Americans made advance plans with the unique Cold War mentality. They absolutely do not want US taxpayers' money to flow to China through PV subsidies. The continuous decline in the price of photovoltaic modules in the past two years has made the United States and the European Union realize that photovoltaics are no longer a distant future. And any "responsible big country" will not let a pillar energy device and equipment manufacturing depend on other countries, and it is a country with completely different ideologies. This is the root cause of the "double opposition" lawsuits initiated by the United States and the European Union.
However, the "double anti-" trade protectionism is not enough to protect photovoltaic companies in Europe and America. Although the international polysilicon giants have mature technology and rich market experience, they still ignore the basic fact that the cost reduction of photovoltaics is an inevitable trend. The current cost of photovoltaic power generation for polysilicon is the mainstream. The process cannot be guaranteed.
The process used by almost all polysilicon manufacturers around the world is called the "Siemens Method" process. This process has many advantages, but the only drawback is that the cost caused by excessive energy consumption is too high to meet the cost requirements of photovoltaic power generation for polysilicon. At present, the total energy consumption of the Siemens method from the metal silicon after milling, trichlorosilane synthesis, rectification, reduction and tail gas cycle to the final polysilicon production is about 160 kWh / kg. For semiconductor silicon, the cost of the Siemens method is not a problem. However, the biggest problem with photovoltaic power generation is that the cost is high. As the most important raw material for photovoltaic cells, polysilicon, the cost is of course a key factor in determining the cost of photovoltaic power generation. Whether it is a Chinese or a foreign company, as long as the Siemens method is adopted, the cost of polysilicon cannot be reduced to the extent that it meets the "fair price" of photovoltaic power generation.
As a result, new processes are constantly being explored. The silane method is a new process that many people have hoped for. The silane method can achieve the purity of the Siemens method at a lower cost. But silane has a natural disadvantage, that is, it will explode once it comes into contact with the air. Since 1970, although there have been more than 20 silane polysilicon production lines in the world (capacity is less than 500 tons / year), almost without exception, ended in an explosion. Recently, the so-called new silane method is nothing more than dilute the silane with a large amount of hydrogen to increase the explosion tolerance, plus the fluidized bed process. In this way, although the danger of explosion is reduced but limited, the cost is greatly increased. More importantly, once this danger occurs, it is fatal and no less harmful than weapons of mass destruction. Even if there are really entrepreneurs who eat bears and dare to dare to build factories, no local government will agree.
Two companies in China have tried to adopt the silane method, and they have already started to build factories. One is the Liujiu Silicon Industry of Yingli Group in Baoding, and the other is Zhongning Silicon Industry in Zhangzhou, Zhejiang. However, the two factories failed to complete and the project construction was terminated. Recently, GCL-Poly also announced the use of the silane method, but whether it will really be launched, remains to be seen.
The unsatisfactory silane method is exactly what the international Siemens law polysilicon manufacturers are willing to see. Because, as long as there is no new technology, as long as they have defeated China's polysilicon enterprises, they can return to the situation that the "seven giants" dominated the world before 2007, and maintain their monopoly status for a long time to share the huge potential brought by photovoltaics. A feast for the polysilicon market. In a way, they did succeed, because they have almost completely smashed all Chinese polysilicon companies. However, they have forgotten one of the most fundamental things, that is, the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry in recent years has changed the situation of “the Silicones are kings†and changed to “cost is kingâ€. The real enemy of these Siemens law giants is not China's polysilicon companies, but new, lower-cost processes. This process is not the silane method that people once thought.
Abstract The development of polysilicon in China Back in the 1950s, China began research on polysilicon. The earliest were Luoyang Semiconductor Factory and Handan Semiconductor Factory. Subsequently, along with the development of semiconductor technology, China has successively established a number of polysilicon plants in Shaanxi, Hebei and other places,...
Review of the development of polysilicon in China