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"The current market supply and demand balance is still relatively fragile. If the blind expansion of competition and expansion, coupled with the influx of overseas polysilicon, there will soon be overcapacity, the photovoltaic industry may return to the winter of 2012." China Zhao Jiasheng, vice president of the Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and president of the Silicon Industry Branch, warned.
Due to the sluggish domestic and international industrial environment and the impact of the EU's double-reverse, China's PV industry continued its low tide in 2012 in the first half of 2013. In the second half of the year, the relevant departments issued continuous favorable policies on photovoltaic grid-connected power generation and on-grid tariff subsidies. The photovoltaic power generation application market gradually recovered, and the price of polysilicon began to rebound in September.
According to NPDsolarbuzz's latest global PV project tracking report, the shipment of solar PV modules is expected to reach nearly 49GW in 2014. It is expected that the demand for solar and semiconductor polysilicon will rise sharply to 282,000 tons in 2014, an increase of 25% over last year.
In this prospect, China has set off a new round of polysilicon. The reporter learned from the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association that the current domestic polysilicon leading enterprises have good capacity utilization in the energy, special changes and Daquan. As the price of silicon materials is stable at 150 yuan/kg or more, Shenzhou, Yongxiang and Sizhong, Companies such as Silicon and Silicon are also starting to work or are preparing to start construction. Among them, Zhongneng's original modified Siemens method and the 10,000-ton silane fluidized bed in mass production will reach at least 70,000 tons of annual capacity in 2014; the special capacity of the existing capacity is 12,000 tons of full production, there is news that Germany Wacker and The special change will be a joint venture in Xinjiang to establish a modified Siemens new polysilicon project with an annual output of 36,000 tons. In the new Xinjiang, the capacity of the first phase of expansion in 2014 doubled, from 6,200 tons to 12,000 tons, and in the second phase of 2015, another 13,000 tons, a total planned annual production capacity of 25,000 tons; Inner Mongolia Shenzhou Silicon Industry will achieve 3000 - 4000 tons of annual production capacity. According to incomplete statistics, domestic polysilicon production capacity will reach 150,000 tons in 2014.
“In Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other areas with rich coal resources, new projects with an annual output of 10,000 tons or even 50,000 tons are still being announced. These projects mainly rely on the coal resources supported by local governments to achieve the project electricity cost advantage, but in the industry. The experience, technical talents and management team are all starting from scratch, not to mention the optimization of technical solutions." Zhao Jiasheng said.
At the same time, the pace of overseas capacity expansion is also accelerating. And 70% of the global demand for polysilicon comes from China, and the influx of overseas polysilicon will undoubtedly further undermine the domestic supply and demand balance.
"You can't overestimate the situation because of the current recovery of the photovoltaic industry. At present, you still need to be vigilant about the blind expansion and repeated construction that the polysilicon industry may cause." Zhao Jiasheng believes that domestic leading polysilicon enterprises should recognize the potential overcapacity crisis and do Good structure adjustment, control the total amount.
The gradual recovery of the PV application market in 2014 has also spurred its upstream polysilicon industry. The reporter was informed that due to the improvement of market demand conditions and rising prices, domestic polysilicon enterprises have a strong desire to resume production and expand production, and they have raised their production targets. The annual output of 10,000 tons or even 50,000 in coal-rich areas such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. The new project plan of the tonnage is also constantly released. According to incomplete statistics, polysilicon production capacity will reach 150,000 tons in 2014.