Prospects for the development of solar photovoltaic industry

The solar photovoltaic industry, like its former automobiles, semiconductors, and the Internet, is experiencing cyclical fluctuations and faces the greatest uncertainty and risk in history. There are currently more than 750 solar photovoltaic companies in the register. After this round of reshuffle, almost all companies will fall to the floor. Whoever is watching, who is yelling and who is standing depends on their own patterns and internal capabilities.

For Chinese solar photovoltaic companies with a short history, they have little experience in industrial development, and they grasp their future trends more. Jing Peng, CEO of Jingao Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., said that the current difficulties are temporary. In the long run, they should be optimistic.

The last two years: In 2010, the industry's growth rate was about 135%. Even if it was called the winter, in 2011, there was still about 40% growth, which was already quite high compared to other industries. The reporter interviewed several CEOs and executives of solar photovoltaic companies and shared their judgments about the future trend of the solar photovoltaic industry with the industry.

The pace of commercialization is accelerating In 2012, the upstream industry will be better than last year. Last year was the worst year. The downstream prices have already dropped, but the upstream prices have not moved, so the middle reaches have been greatly squeezed. However, after the fourth quarter of last year, silicon wafers and silicon materials have dropped sharply. This year is a relatively balanced state for the battery and photovoltaic module industry.

The global solar PV market will be generally good. In Europe, there have been many negative news recently, such as the decline in subsidies. I don’t think that we should understand negatively, and why should we decline? The larger the scale, the more marketization will be, and the less subsidies will be, This is a good thing. This industry started to be driven by the government and turned into a market-driven one. Solar energy is not far from the second spring.

Judging from the development cycle of the industry, it is necessary to conduct integration once every few years. However, it is difficult for China to integrate solar energy. There is no forecast in this market, there is no long-term planning, and many companies only see good profits and come in on a large scale. After a large-scale surplus, it has a great impact on small businesses, and then fights price wars, disrupting the entire market price.

However, such interference cannot exist for a long time. Finally, it needs to be integrated. In the future, the terminal market will become more and more concentrated. It is difficult for suppliers to have quality requirements, capital requirements, and management requirements, and it is difficult for small enterprises or non-regulated enterprises to come in. Moreover, their funding channels have been cut off, and listing is impossible. Because the market is mature and small companies lacking in scale will be out of the game, but they will be out of office relatively slowly. They may have to go through two or three cycles, and they can only consume a lot of money. It will only choose to leave.

Branding and management are becoming more and more important. I think solar PV is also expanding its development and influence in the world. Domestic production companies must pay attention to cost control, new product development, and brand building. At the same time, it is necessary to cope with the appreciation of the ***, the general trend of the devaluation of the euro, and anti-dumping investigations and games that will become increasingly heavy.

In 2011, there were many blind behaviors in the industry. The short supply was far more than demand, but the high inventory was a temporary phenomenon and has now eased significantly. Due to the pressure of production costs, many of the companies that have entered the low point are the production-oriented enterprises that have already reached the transition time. Cost control is a big core, and it needs to deepen internal strength at the same time. In the previous rampant production expansion, the management was not fine, and the talents and equipment purchased at high prices did not play a role in the crisis. For those companies that have established international brands, it is recommended that they continue to maintain their own brands and increase their investment in the brand. Do not allow this advantage to be lost before the crisis.

Photovoltaic module companies' products are too single to increase the development of new products. In summary, the cost reduction in the production and management links requires more investment in branding and R&D. Of course, there is another project company and engineering company in the industry that talks about mergers and acquisitions overseas. My judgment is that mergers and acquisitions are easy, and management and integration are difficult. Need a strong operational ability, have a team to accumulate, instead of spending energy on it, might as well do the best in production, research and development and brand building.

The market is increasingly diversified The European market is difficult to predict, the European debt crisis is still fermenting, everyone can predict that will not be resolved in a short time. This will affect the countries' policies on solar photovoltaics. From Germany's perspective, one policy in two months has changed rapidly. At present, the photovoltaic market depends largely on the stability of the policy. The uncertainty of the future European market is relatively large. Italy, Germany, and France are less optimistic. On the contrary, some countries in Central Europe, such as Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, may There is growth, so overall, Europe will decline by about 10%. Germany and Italy will lose more and make up for it by other countries. This is an approximate estimate of the European market.

The United States is also a big market, but now components must be taxed, parts and components must be taxed, and the double negatives will not be able to be solved by 1:15. Even if a factory is in the United States, its quantity will not be able to meet the demand. For China's solar PV companies, what should we do? In overseas investment factories, to supply the needs of the US market, or to give up this market, I think we will not give up. Although emerging markets such as Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are just getting started, they will become even more important.

Solar power generation in the future will be very promising. The present supply and demand are actually not real supply and demand, but the demand has not been dug out. First, there is no real integration into the power grid. For example, I have a villa and want to install two solar panels. Like European countries, I use my own solar power for my own use. I can't use the power to get into the grid and sell it to the country. When it is not enough, then buy it from the power grid. This cannot be realized in China. The second is that they still rely on the government to eat, and they have not realized the commercialization of real significance. All these must be resolved by time.