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We believe that the macroeconomic downturn has affected the recovery of demand for the tissue paper market. In the short-term, it is hard to see the market in the upstream and downstream markets. At the same time, the price of wood pulp is still at a historical low level, and it is expected that leading household paper enterprises with a general inventory of more than 6 months will benefit. Continue to give the “buy†rating to the household paper industry, H-shares recommend Hengan International, Vinda International, and A-shares recommend Zhongshun Jierou.
Real estate investment sales rebounded in September, and the furniture market is expected to benefit from the peak season.
According to the latest data in September, the national real estate investment completion and commercial housing sales rebounded slightly, and the market showed signs of gradual recovery. The “Golden September and Silver 10†effect appeared. The market reflects that the furniture industry has recovered from the immediate release of housing and the effects of the holiday. The custom furniture industry is mainly faced with the wedding decoration, personalized customization meets the consumer taste of young people, and the performance will be better than the overall furniture industry. Give Sofia a “buy†rating to the custom wardrobe industry.
The price of dissolving pulp products has slowed down, and the demand for textiles has not improved. This week, the prices of dissolving pulp-related products have shown signs of stabilizing and stabilizing, and individual products have been lowered by ex-factory price of RMB 100/ton. According to the textile industry data in September, the situation of the downstream textile demand continued to be unsettled, and the domestic cotton pulp and lint prices continued to be low. In view of the fact that the timing of investment in the topic of dissolving pulp has not yet arrived, we will not recommend it to relevant listed companies.
The downstream demand of the packaging industry is clearly differentiated, and the domestic consumer goods support is the most stable. The latest industry data shows that the growth rate of the downstream market in the packaging industry continued to differentiate in September: the growth rate of some home appliances was significantly accelerated, and the growth of food and beverage and daily cosmetics was the most stable. Considering the stability of the company's operation and management, we recommend Yongxin, Hexing Packaging and Tongxing Lixing.
The risk indicates that the economic growth rate has exceeded expectations and the wood pulp and packaging materials have exceeded expectations.
The weak demand has affected the domestic paper market to pick up, and the industry leader has benefited from the low cost advantage. Recently, the circulation of finished papers in North China is not ideal. The paper mills have lowered the ex-factory price by RMB 100-200/ton. Although there is no price adjustment in the southern region, the trading situation is flat and the shipping resistance is too large.