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Previously, according to the calculations of the National Development and Reform Commission, in 2014 and 2015, only an annual average of 3.9% reduction in unit GDP (regional GDP) was needed, so that the “12th Five-Year Plan†energy saving rate of 16% and the carbon emission intensity reduction of 17% can be achieved.
The actual situation is that the energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 4.8% in 2014, and fell by 5.9% in the first half of this year. Many experts estimate that by the end of 2015, the “12th Five-Year Plan†unit GDP energy consumption and unit GDP carbon emissions may fall by 18% and 19% respectively. Correspondingly, in order to reduce the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 40%-45% in 2020, the carbon emissions per unit of GDP in 2030 is 60%-65% lower than that in 2005, “13th Five-Year Plan†(by 2020). The energy consumption per unit of GDP only needs to be reduced by 13%, and the carbon emissions per unit of GDP will fall by 14% or 15%, so that the task of reducing emissions to international commitments can be completed. .
Jiang Kezhen, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that if the 13th Five-Year Plan sets a 13% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP, it will certainly not work. "Because the numbers are too low, there is not much binding on energy conservation and emission reduction," he said. Some experts have suggested that it can be set higher. The reason is that the economy continued to slow down during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and energy and carbon emissions grew more slowly. At this time, energy conservation and emission reduction can better achieve the goal.
Yang Fuqiang, senior adviser to the US Natural Resources Defense Council, believes that since the energy consumption per unit of GDP in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†can be reduced by 18%, the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†can also be set according to this goal. As for the carbon emission intensity, because the demand for coal is declining, it can even Set to a task that drops by 20%.
Indicators tend to increase
Up to now, except for a few areas such as Xinjiang, most provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in the country have announced that they have achieved the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†energy-saving targets in advance. Judging from the situation in the country, this year's over-fulfillment of the "12th Five-Year Plan" energy-saving emission reduction targets is not a big problem.
Many experts believe that if there is no accident, by the end of this year, the energy consumption per unit of GDP in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†may drop by 18%, significantly exceeding the target of 16%, and the target of a 17% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP is expected to be exceeded.
For example, many institutions estimate that the energy consumption per unit of GDP in the “13th Five-Year Plan†needs to be reduced by only 13%, and the carbon emissions per unit of GDP will fall by 14% or 15%. But almost all experts believe that it is unlikely to set such a low indicator.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University [microblogging] believes that from now on, it is no problem to achieve the target of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2020 by 40-45% compared with 2005. The energy consumption per unit of GDP in the “13th Five-Year Plan†has dropped by 13%. This is also quite reasonable. However, if the 15% indicator is set, the target will be set higher.
As for the carbon intensity emission reduction target, it can be set higher, because the proportion of coal is now larger and will continue to decline in the future. In addition, the indicator of clean energy can be set higher. Now its development is very good, and traditional energy is going on. After that, clean energy has developed rapidly.
"The goal of reducing energy intensity in the '13th Five-Year Plan' is set at 15%. It is increasingly difficult to reform energy consumption in the future," he said.
Jiang Kezhen believes that the energy consumption per unit of GDP in the “13th Five-Year Plan†can be set at 16%, which is the same as the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, but the reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP can be set higher, such as 18%.
Energy consumption or current turning point in high energy-consuming industries
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that the proportion of the “13th Five-Year†service industry is expected to continue to increase rapidly, which makes the growth rate of energy consumption further decline, because the possibility of a rapid decline in energy consumption per unit of GDP exists.
Luo Jianhua, secretary-general of the Chamber of Commerce of the National Federation of Industry and Commerce, believes that the proportion of the tertiary industry has now surpassed that of the secondary industry. The industries with high energy consumption and high pollution are becoming less and less, and the driving effect on the reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP will increase.
"Possibly during the '13th Five-Year' period, the total energy consumption of high-energy-consuming industries such as steel and cement will have an inflection point, which is a positive factor for energy conservation and emission reduction. The '13th Five-Year' period is one of China's pollution control. A good period.†He believes that lower energy growth may support better GDP growth. But how to set it up, we must study it carefully.
The data shows that coal consumption in 2014 fell by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating that the total carbon emissions contributed by coal may have begun to enter negative growth.
Although oil and natural gas consumption is still increasing, considering that coal contributes more to carbon emissions, it means that the national carbon emission peak is coming ahead. This is very different from the country's previous set of carbon emissions peaks in 2030.
Yang Fuqiang believes that the "13th Five-Year Plan" period will mainly limit coal use. At present, the approval of thermal power projects will be phased out. By 2020, with the completion of investment in thermal power projects approved in the past, there should be no new thermal power generation.
“At this time, coal consumption will account for a rapid decline in the proportion of all primary energy consumption, and the total amount of carbon emissions will be reduced faster. Therefore, controlling coal consumption can achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions,†he said.
Abstract With the end of the final year of the 12th Five-Year Plan, how to determine the “13th Five-Year Plan†energy conservation and emission reduction targets will become a problem to be solved in the next five years. The reporter was informed that due to "Twelfth Five...
With the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" final year, how to determine the "13th Five-Year Plan" energy-saving emission reduction targets will become a problem to be solved in the next five years. The reporter was informed that since the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†energy conservation and emission reduction targets are expected to significantly exceed the targets, the “13th Five-Year Plan†is to significantly increase the indicators, or to maintain low indicators, which will become an important part of the “13th Five-Year Planâ€. point.