Colored annual growth rate will be strictly controlled within 8 to prevent the repetition of the iron and steel industry

The refractory non-ferrous metal industry may face a pot of cold water.

According to various sources, non-ferrous metals will enter the growth period of speed control, and the forthcoming "12th Five-Year Plan" for the non-ferrous metal industry will control the output of ten major metals within the annual growth rate of 8%.

Since the 21st century, China’s non-ferrous metals industry has undergone two rounds of rapid growth. According to Chen Quanxun, president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, China’s non-ferrous metals industry’s investment has grown at an average annual rate of 32.7%. Revenue increased by 29.4%. China has been the largest producer of non-ferrous metals for many years.

According to the data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by 2010, the output of ten non-ferrous metal industries including aluminum, copper, lead and zinc reached 31.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and production and consumption accounted for one-third of the world's total. The main business income was about 3 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.99% of the total GDP from 1.19% in 2005.

However, although China's non-ferrous metals industry is "big" but not "strong," according to Chen Quanxun, in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China's non-ferrous metal industry profit growth was only 18.2%, much lower than investment growth, preliminary estimates, 2010 The industry-wide sales margin is only about 4.8%, which is far below the average of 10%. The asset profit rate is only 6%, which is equivalent to the bank's long-term interest rate, which is "equivalent to working for the bank."

Former chairman of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Kang Yi, said that in order to effectively control the excessive growth of smelting capacity and strengthen the non-ferrous metals industry, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” proposed controlling the growth of non-ferrous metal production.

"China's non-ferrous metals industry is entirely possible to become a replica of China's steel industry." Vice Chairman of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Shang Fushan, told this reporter that the expansion of China's non-ferrous metal production is not supported by related minerals, but with China's non-ferrous metals The rapid growth of metal smelting capacity is likely to fall into the same “processer” role as the Chinese steel industry.

China's non-ferrous metals industry has already had a high fever, with aluminum being a typical example. Xiong Weiping, chairman of China Aluminum Corporation, the largest aluminum producer in China, stated in early 2011 that China's aluminum production capacity will exceed 21 million tons in 2010, which is much higher than the consumption of 16 million tons.

In fact, in 2009, the Chinese government promulgated the "Circular on Suppressing Some Opinions on Overcapacity in Some Industries and Duplicate Construction and Leading the Healthy Development of Industries", suggesting that there is a surplus in the electrolytic aluminum industry and it is required to curb its development.

However, the above measures did not limit the high-speed expansion of the electrolytic aluminum industry. In 2009, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 18 million tons, and the capacity growth rate in 2010 was 16.7%, which is still in double-digit high-speed growth. At the same time, however, the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum in China has dropped from overload to 60%.

The control of non-ferrous metals in China seems to have been inevitable, but many non-ferrous metal producers said on anonymity, China's rapid economic growth caused by non-ferrous metal demand can not be controlled, and non-ferrous metal smelting projects generally belong to local major projects, pulling GDP The effect is obvious. In the end, "If the card is 8%, then who is this 8%? What is the basis?"

“The development of the non-ferrous metals industry will eventually have to go through the market.” The vice president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the Documentary Army, has repeatedly stressed to the reporter that administrative intervention measures will have a certain impact on the development of the non-ferrous metals industry, but in the end it is still a “market. Having said that, such as aluminum, when the market price is 15,000 yuan / ton, you can't do it, you can only go out."