Oil and gas exploration and development efforts need to be improved

China is one of the major oil and gas producing countries in the world. The growth of oil and gas production is in the forefront of the world, but the growth rate of production is lagging behind the economic growth rate. Therefore, the dependence on foreign countries is getting higher and higher, with oil reaching 70% and natural gas reaching 40%. The highest value in American history. As far as comprehensive national strength and “discourse power” in the world oil industry are concerned, we still have a gap. In the historical period of the world's great changes, such high external dependence is clearly the soft underbelly of China's energy security. However, China's oil and gas resources are abundant and have not been fully explored and developed. Therefore, it is a major issue in the current energy field to upgrade domestic oil and gas exploration and development efforts and ensure national energy security.

There is huge room for development of domestic oil upstream industry

From the 1930s to the 1950s, China has repeatedly experienced the "card neck" predicament in the oil supply. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, after the arduous struggle, the hat of "poor oil" was finally removed. The oil was not only self-sufficient but also exported, creating a "golden 30-year" in China's petroleum industry. Since 1993, China has once again become a net importer of oil.

In the 1970s, two "oil crises" brought enormous damage to the US economy. The United States therefore proposed an "energy independence" strategy. The endowment of oil and gas resources in the United States is not good. At that time, the average daily production of single wells in oil wells was less than 2 tons, and the oil wells of 70% and 80% were only 0.28 tons (2 barrels). By relying on drilling a large number of oil and gas wells, after decades of efforts, the current US domestic oil and gas production has returned to a peak, changing the world's energy territory.

The history of both China and the United States proves that domestic oil and gas resources are the foundation of national energy security; the domestically developed petroleum industry is the basis for active and effective use of foreign oil and gas resources. There are indeed a number of countries in the world that rely entirely on imported oil for modernization. Some people use this as a basis to advocate that China should follow suit. However, the author has consistently advocated that as long as the availability and economics allow, foreign resources can be used more, but at the same time, domestic work can not be relaxed. It is necessary to find more reserves and build more capacity, and choose some “enriched high-yield” reserves to build Take "or build" or "take less" to prepare for the unexpected.

China's development prospects for the oil upstream industry have had three major discussions in the past 70 years: the first time in the early 1950s, the discussion focused on "focus on the development of artificial oil or natural oil"; the second time in the 1980s, The discussion is whether "the annual output of crude oil can be stabilized by 100 million tons." At present, the third major discussion is going on, mainly focusing on the question of whether “the annual output of crude oil can be stabilized by 200 million tons” and “the maximum annual output of natural gas can reach”. In fact, in the past 70 years, there have been many difficulties, setbacks and fierce debates. The causes are all related to the different understandings of the prospects of oil and gas resources and the difficulty of work.

The large-scale oil and gas exploration and development practice in New China, the previous national oil and gas resources evaluation research proves that China's resources are abundant, and the conventional oil and gas exploration levels are relatively low, less than 40% and 20% respectively; the exploration of unconventional oil and gas has just started. The degree of exploration and development is neither balanced nor sufficient. Therefore, the author believes that contrary to the exhaustion of some academician experts, there is still much room for development in China's oil upstream industry.

According to the information of the former Ministry of Land and Resources, China has a prospect of oil and gas exploration, and only about half of the area has been issued for exploration and mining licenses. The favorable exploration areas of China and the United States are similar, but the investment is very different. Taking the exploration well every year as an example, in the United States from 1938 to 1998, the average annual completion of 8680 in 60 years; while China generally only has 1000-2000, the most invested in the past 10 years, only 3464, of which the vast sea area is only completed every year. 92 exploration wells.

Based on years of practical experience, the author has always maintained a positive and optimistic attitude towards the development of the domestic oil upstream industry. The author believes that the national oil and gas production in 2030 will reach 250-300 million tons and 250-300 billion cubic meters respectively, and the shale gas and coalbed methane will reach 100 billion cubic meters. The author believes that only by achieving consensus on the necessity and possibility of upgrading, can we "people's heart and Taishan move", in order to deepen reform, expand opening up, and create a new situation in China's oil upstream industry.

It is not advisable to prematurely declare that “has entered an unconventional era”

Among the natural oil and gas resources, the proportion of “low grade” (including “unconventional”) is greater than the proportion of “medium and high grade”. As the level of work increases, the proportion of “low grade” in reserves will increase. The level of resource quality is a relative concept. With science and technology and management, “low-grade” resources can become economically recoverable reserves.

The grade of reserves has deteriorated. To develop productivity, the production relationship has to be adjusted accordingly. The Sulige gas field in the Ordos Basin is an atmospheric field and a “low grade” gas field. Mining in the original way of Changqing Oilfield Company has no economic value. Later, the five other companies were involved in the development and formed a competitive mechanism. At the same time, more than 100 private enterprise drilling teams were employed. As a result, the cost was reduced, the progress was accelerated, and the annual production capacity of more than 20 billion cubic meters of natural gas was built. The Kurdos Basin is based on the "low-grade" oil and gas resources, adheres to scientific and technological progress, institutional and institutional innovation, and has rapidly emerged as the second largest oil and gas region in the country. As the level of work increases and the understanding deepens, the prospects for resource prospects in the basin are getting better and better: in 1984, the forecast of oil resources was 1.53 billion tons, and there were 5 billion tons and 8.5 billion tons of disputes in the turn of the century. Today’s forecast is 12.5 billion. Ton.

The final product of exploration is reserves. If the product has a backlog of unsalable sales, exploration is difficult to sustain. At present, China has more than 8 billion tons of proven undeveloped oil reserves; the undeveloped natural gas reserves are 5 trillion cubic meters, which is roughly equivalent to the accumulated proven reserves in the country for ten years. Needless to say, these reserves are mostly “low grade”, which is difficult to mine and low in efficiency. However, compared with the “unconventional oil and gas resources” that people are popular today, not only the geological risks are small, but also the mining difficulty is small. If the enthusiasm, concept and technology of developing shale gas are used, half of the undeveloped reserves will be used. Even if the oil recovery rate is as low as 0.5% and the gas production rate is as low as 1%, the country can still add 20 million tons of oil production capacity and 250 natural gas production capacity. One hundred million cubic meters. Coupled with the increased benefits of the technical services industry, it is enough to open up new economic growth points.

The development of oil and gas is a production activity and economic activity. According to the economic law, the choice of work objects must be "first easy and then difficult" "first fat and thin". Overall, unconventional oil and gas is more difficult to drill than conventional oil and gas, high in cost, and high in probability of polluting the environment. In order to continue to develop in the future, it is absolutely necessary to open up a number of “pilot test areas” for unconventional oil and gas without any cost. However, for commercial exploitation, the market must play a decisive role in resource allocation. On the basis of recognizing the existence of "grade difference" in mineral resources, we should improve the management of mineral rights and the fiscal and taxation system, and encourage the development of "low-grade" resources, rather than adopting excessive administrative intervention, otherwise it will violate the original intention of the reform. Different from the United States, China's conventional oil and gas is still in the middle and early stages of exploration. The probability of finding high-grade oil and gas reserves is still relatively large. It is too early to claim that China has entered the era of unconventional oil and gas, which is unfavorable to scientific development.

It is necessary to attach great importance to the stable production and development of the "old district"

The natural decline in oil and gas field production is an objective law. In order to slow down the diminution, various stimulation measures need to be taken; in order to maintain stable production and production of an oil zone (basin or basin group), it is necessary to continuously explore new fields, explore new reserves, and build new production capacity. Therefore, the oil upstream industry is an industry that “goes against the water and does not enter and retreat”.

Unlike the early days of the founding of New China, the current work targets not only new districts, but also “old districts”. The major oil and gas producing countries in the world attach great importance to the stable production and development of the “old district”. In the history of the US oil industry for nearly 160 years, the level of exploration and development has been very high, but in the past half a century, 80% of the newly recoverable reserves still come from the “old district”. The main producing areas of unconventional oil and gas that are currently attracting attention in the world are also in the “old district”. Compared with the United States, China's petroleum geological conditions are more complicated, and the "old district" has a much lower level of work and awareness, and thus has greater potential.

Innovation is the essence of exploration and development. The uniqueness of the work object requires innovation; the efficient use of the means requires systematic innovation; the long process of understanding requires continuous innovation. The exploration and development of “old districts” in particular requires perseverance in exploration and innovation.

Each oil and gas area in the world is composed of a number of different working objects (geological bodies). Breaking through one to break through the other, often undergoing a long and arduous process of understanding, with the characteristics of “long cycle”. Some hundred years of oil and gas exploration and development are still in full swing. American shale oil, gas, Canadian oil sand oil, etc. have been commercial development after decades of hard work. The situation in China is almost the same: the development history of the Ordos Basin has been more than 110 years, and the rapid increase of reserves and production is in the past 20 or 30 years; the exploration of the Sichuan Basin is nearly 80 years, the gas field is getting bigger and bigger; the Bohai Bay Basin has been fighting for more than 60 years. The peak of production has been repeated; recent major discoveries such as Xinglongtai, Niudong and Hexiwu have been the result of exploration in 30-40 years. In the process of understanding, people have experienced many times the situation of “re-reviewing mountains and waters, no roads, no flowers and no villages”. American oil geologist PA Dick also had a similar feeling when reviewing the history of the US oil industry: "The use of old ideas in an old oil area rarely finds a lot of oil. In the past, sometimes we thought that no oil can be found. But actually we lack new ideas."

In China, the petroleum legal system is incomplete, the competent government departments are frequently changing, and the continuity of work is impaired. The work of the “old district” has become a weak link. Individual “old districts”, such as the Songliao Basin and the Daqing Changyu Oilfield, have experienced declining production, while their peripheral reserves and production have not taken over, resulting in global passiveness. Enterprises can give up the "old district" for various reasons, but at the national level, they must not do "monkeys and treasures".

Let the big, medium and small companies go hand in hand

We must adhere to the development path of high firewood. First of all, this is determined by the characteristics of the work object. The concealment and uniqueness of the work object make the upstream industry have the characteristics of high risk, high technology, high investment and long period. Therefore, more investment entities and more different work ideas can expand the scale of practice, share risks and improve effectiveness. In addition, the huge differences in the size and grade of oil and gas fields also require companies of different sizes and types to adapt. This is done in the United States, which is conducive to national energy security and social wealth.

Second, this is the status quo of China's upstream industry. After years of rapid development, the proportion of “low grade” in China's domestic oil and gas reserves has increased. The high technical and economic threshold of large enterprises will inevitably include "low grade" in another book, or even write off. These acts are carried out under the banner of “economic efficiency” and are likely to lead to misjudgment of China’s oil prospects.

Third, practice has proved that this road is feasible in China. The extension of oil mines to become the fourth largest oil company in China is a convincing example. Since the reform and opening up, foreign companies have been introduced to jointly develop oil and gas. At the same time, there have been many small and medium-sized oil companies in various systems. Practice has proved that this is conducive to the full utilization of "low-grade" resources, and is conducive to winning the "oil zone that can't be attacked for a long time", which is conducive to the "returning to life" of abandoned oil and gas fields, which is conducive to opening up new exploration areas and helping to increase employment. The post is conducive to the recycling of “oil on the ground”. The country needs a “complete industrial chain” of all kinds of large, medium and small companies, not an extreme. To follow this path, we must open up resources, share information, invest effectively, provide technical guidance, and effectively supervise.

China's domestic oil upstream industry "access threshold", should be treated equally to all types of large, medium and small companies. Strictly implement the exploration and exit system for exploration and mining licenses to speed up the exploration and development process; establish a reserve market and stream the live stock, so that oil and gas can be developed in a timely and rational manner. It is necessary to promote the process of “longitudinal division of mineral rights” through pilots, which will help to obtain more work in the work area; it will also help alleviate the contradiction of “overlapping of mining areas”. In the space stipulated by the permit, the licensed company can explore unconventional oil and gas as well as conventional oil and gas. This reduces the investment risk for the company and reduces the difficulty of supervision for the country.

Oil and gas resources are objective things, and "resources" and "reserves" are just people's concepts. Without accurate and accurate "information", it is impossible to develop the former economically and effectively, and it is impossible to correctly understand the latter. Over the years, China's large-scale oil and gas exploration and accumulation activities have accumulated a lot of information, but scattered in the hands of various units, is not conducive to social sharing. The government should accurately define the level of "confidentiality" and the number of years to solve this problem as soon as possible.

The oil upstream industry is a systematic project to explore geological bodies from different angles of geology, geophysics and geochemistry from different levels of aerospace, aviation, ground and underground. Without science and technology, it is difficult to explore activities. China urgently needs to build a "high-energy, low-energy" technology service market, otherwise "all people collect firewood high" is a sentence.

The US government has made three major services to oil companies: first, regular evaluation of national oil and gas resources, indicating the direction for oil companies to select blocks; second, establishing a non-profit petroleum technology transfer committee (PTTC) to promote technical exchanges. And transfer; third, jointly select technical research projects with small companies and share the costs.

In the face of a variety of oil companies, our government services should be classified and implemented. Foreign small and medium-sized oil companies are growing up with the modern oil industry. They have rich experience in the industry and belong to the “tight combination of capital and knowledge”. It is only a “battlefield transfer” to develop oil and gas in China. Most of China's small and medium-sized oil companies have been established since the reform and opening up. They are "half-way monks" and belong to "the combination of capital and knowledge." For the former, we must help them, get familiar with China's national conditions and petroleum geological conditions as soon as possible, and get rid of the "acclimatism"; for the latter, we must help them become familiar with the oil upstream industry, from easy to difficult to move forward. In the second round of shale gas bidding in the country, the winning bidder promised 12.8 billion yuan of investment. However, they faced a difficult area when they started to work, and the delay in seeing the effect will inevitably dampen investor enthusiasm. At present, it seems that the Inner Mongolia Mesozoic basin group with proven undeveloped reserves is more suitable as the preferred target.

In view of the detours that the “oil boom” in the past ten years in Shaanxi has gone through, the coal industry has “the rapid flow of water”, the oil ore rights should continue to implement “specific minerals, first-level management”, but it can be “multi-level supervision”. ". The intensity of the release of mineral rights should be in line with the government's ability to govern, avoiding the old path of "disposing and chaos, and collecting and dying."

Oil exploration and development fund should be established

Up to now, China's domestic oil and gas exploration results are generally positively related to the physical workload. In the past 10 years, the oil and gas reserves have “growth peak”, and the average annual new reserves are twice that of the “7th Five-Year Plan” and “Eighth Five-Year Plan” period. The oil equivalent of each exploration well is roughly equivalent to that during the "seventh five-year" and "eight-five" periods. The peak is mainly achieved by increasing investment and increasing workload. Relying on scientific and technological progress and overcoming the difficulty of reducing the quality of resources, it is not easy to achieve such benefits. However, there is still a lot of room to improve the benefits by reducing major decision-making mistakes and eliminating corruption. It is necessary to give full play to the role of the market as an "invisible hand" and continue to improve the modern management system of oil companies.

First, further improve the property rights system. The transfer of mineral rights and reserves must be operated in accordance with the law, fair and transparent. Prevent speculation, prevent the loss of state-owned assets, and prevent corruption. The second is to achieve scientific decision-making through technological democracy. We can start with the “post-assessment” of past work, earnestly sum up lessons and improve decision-making procedures and systems. The third is to become the main body of innovation. “Remote production factors and rationally reorganize to improve production efficiency and efficiency.” Vigorously support scientific and technological innovation and adopt a tolerant attitude towards failure: strict review of results, practice testing, supplemented by expert review, and establishment of accountability review system . Fourth, improve the system for selecting and appointing cadres. Establish a system of accountability for accountability.

Increasing production and improving efficiency is a long-term process that is difficult to overcome. In addition, we are moving forward under the low “reservoir ratio”. Therefore, we must maintain sufficient investment while avoiding the consequences and avoid falling back to the 1980s. The dilemma of the rice pot. Recently, the annual output of crude oil in the country has plummeted, from 215 million tons in 2015 to 192 million tons in 2017. International oil prices plummeted, and oil companies closed some oil wells, mainly due to economic factors. The oil upstream industry has the characteristics of “long-term”. Once the work in the “low oil price” period is interrupted, it will pay higher costs for future recovery and development. The state should set up an "oil exploration and development fund" to feed back the oil industry in difficult times. The funds can be derived from the savings from the national import of oil during the “low oil price” period; the “special income” collected by the state during the “high oil price” period.

The hand of the government has to play a bigger role

Market economy countries have long recognized that there are differences at the national and enterprise levels in the management of oil and gas management: the former is to transform resources into public, long-term, sustainable interests; the latter is to obtain the largest from resource development. Net present value. When there is a contradiction between the two, the former always strengthens macro management through laws, policies and other means to obey the national interests.

After the Netherlands discovered the Groningen gas field in the country in 1959, it was stipulated that the gas field should be produced under the premise that it could not disturb the country's energy supply and contribute as much as possible to the Dutch economy. In order to avoid dependence on foreign countries, especially politically unstable countries, the Netherlands has implemented a “small gas field policy” to allow 260 small gas fields to be fully produced, while the Groningen gas field retains half of its capacity as “peaking” and “ Emergency use.

The United States believes that "reliance on imported oil is a long-term serious challenge that makes the US economy extremely vulnerable. It increases its dependence on foreign oil and profoundly explains the mistakes in formulating energy policies." To this end, the United States has focused on import security and has focused on local resource development. The former has three measures:

First, focus on neighboring countries and achieve import diversification. The second is to establish a global alliance and work with oil producing countries to ensure a smooth supply. Improve the trade and investment environment and make American companies a leader in the world's energy industry. Carefully plan a world oil information system and use economic sanctions as an important diplomatic tool. The third is to establish an emergency mechanism. Develop a contingency plan and do a good job of oil reserves. The latter takes five measures: expanding the exploration sector; focusing on the development of “low-grade” resources, supporting small independent oil and gas producers; enhancing oil recovery; integrating new technologies into energy development plans; and modifying outdated regulations to lift oil and gas development. Bondage. The United States claims to be the world's freest market economy, but its oil and gas development management is very strict and specific. Through clear targets, specific measures, and strong “two-handedness”, the United States has ensured energy security not only in the long-term 2/3 oil-dependent import situation, but also local oil and gas production.

Compared with these countries, we have misunderstandings in the role of "two hands" in dialectical treatment, and there are gaps in practice. China's existing laws and regulations have insufficient consideration of the characteristics of the oil upstream industry and lack of adaptability to the oil and gas development stage. The energy authority has changed too frequently, and it has not been able to use the law to establish the duties and powers of the new administration based on careful analysis of historical experience and lessons. When the organization was reorganized, the backbone of the original department seldom entered the new department, which affected the continuity of the work. The new department lacks systematic and in-depth investigation and research on the petroleum industry. Facing the deepening of exploration and development and the declining resource quality, it has not been able to keep pace with the times. It still uses the method of dealing with the “new district” in the past to deal with the “old district”. Inevitably discounted; some of the planned production indicators, due to unrealistic and often fail, led to misjudgment of the domestic oil prospects.

It is hoped that through in-depth systematic investigation and research, clearing the national conditions, respecting the law, and learning from foreign experience, the government's "visible hand" can "concentrate and efficiently coordinate the overall situation and truly plan for the future."

Hack Saw

Small Hacksaw,Metal Hacksaw,Cordless Hacksaw,Hand Hacksaw

ZHOUSHAN CHUNLEI HACKSAW CO.,LTD , https://www.bailei.com