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At present, preliminary accounting data for economic operations in the first quarter of each region have been announced. Judging from the year-on-year growth rate of the GDP of the 16 provinces announced, except for Hunan and Xinjiang, the GDP growth rate was slightly higher than that of the same period of last year, and the other 14 provinces were lower than the first quarter of last year. “In the first quarter, the national economy and the GDP of some provinces showed a slight decline, indicating that China’s economic growth is gradually driven by the policy of responding to the financial crisis, driven by endogenous power, and the coordination, sustainability and endogenous dynamics of economic development have Strengthening. This is an important result brought about by the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy," said Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council. The growth rate in the east has dropped significantly, indicating that their structural adjustment is significantly faster than that of other provinces. From the current situation, the moderate slowdown in economic growth is the result of the cumulative effect of macro tightening policies, which is conducive to the control of inflation levels, due to a series of favorable economic growth. The existence of factors and policy space does not have to worry too much about the downside risks of China's economic growth in 2011, and there will be no risk of a hard landing. The growth of the entity is still relatively strong. The effects of economic restructuring are being reflected in different forms in different regions. “The growth rate of the eastern coastal provinces, Beijing and Shanghai has dropped significantly, and the decline rate is higher than that of other provinces. The speed of structural adjustment is also faster than that of other provinces, and the investment field is mainly reflected in industrial upgrading and service industry. Improvement," said Ba Shusong. At present, although some industrial development areas in the central and western provinces are still relatively large, and infrastructure investment demand is still relatively strong, the rate of economic growth is relatively fast, and the scale of investment by local governments is also large, "but with the previous 'for exports' The investment is different. At present, the central and western provinces have gradually turned to 'investing for industrial transfer' and 'investing for consumption'." Ba Shusong said, "In the coming period, the eastern provinces will accelerate industrial upgrading and the central provinces will undertake industries. The transfer and the 'three-way pattern' of accelerating infrastructure investment in the western provinces will continue. Although the focus of structural adjustment will still maintain a clear regional differentiation, the direction is generally the same.†Real estate regulation has led to a rapid decline in economic growth in some provinces, but not Downside risks to economic growth Under the strict real estate adjustment policy, real estate investment has shown a slowdown trend. The growth rate of real estate investment in some provinces has dropped significantly, which has had a significant impact on the economic growth rate in the first quarter. For example, in the first quarter of last year, Hainan's real estate development investment increased by 136.9%, ranking first in the country. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of real estate investment in the province dropped by nearly 100%. Liu Yuanchun, deputy dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, pointed out that in fact, the real estate investment in the first quarter reached 884.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.1%, and there has not been a significant decline. “The changes in real estate investment in the first quarter of this year are only structural. For example, in places like Hainan, housing prices rose too fast in the first quarter of last year, and real estate investment also overheated. In April last year, after the “National Tenâ€, some provinces’ real estate investment increased. The speed is falling, it should be said that this is a positive phenomenon," he said. Will real estate regulation affect economic growth? Liu Yuanchun believes that with the accelerated development of reserve land, the growth rate of commercial housing investment will not decline significantly for a while, and this year the central government has proposed a plan to build 10 million sets of affordable housing, which can make up for the decline in the growth rate of commercial housing investment in the second half of this year. The impact. "At present, real estate regulation and control has not yet been fully in place, and the source of funds for real estate development enterprises is still very abundant. In the future, the strength and direction of real estate regulation and control should be strengthened and improved," he said. Further shrinking the scale of loans to large enterprises and large projects, and guarding against overheated investment At present, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions in China has increased to a historical high of 20.5%. Many banking institutions have reached or reached the “red line†of deposit and loan ratio of 75%, facing a situation of no money and no loans. "The impact of the contraction of monetary policy on this year's economic growth is undoubtedly the biggest." Liu Yuanchun said, "But in order to deal with the current inflation and other issues, this is absolutely necessary." The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Party Secretary Quan Zheyi was in the first The Seventh China Private Enterprise Investment and Development Forum pointed out that the central bank has continuously raised the deposit reserve ratio and interest rates, and the bank's short-term loan interest rate reached 6.31%, which made the SME loan more difficult. “We found that some microfinance companies are paying usury in disguise. Originally, we stipulated that the interest rate of private loan companies should not exceed 4 times, but now far exceeds this indicator.†“The direction of monetary policy tightening cannot be shaken, and it should be further Shrinking loans to large enterprises and large projects. As the first year of the '12th Five-Year Plan', the investment enthusiasm of each place is very high, and there are many large investment projects. The investment scale for strategic emerging industries will be very large. We must be vigilant. If the economy is overheated, we must also be wary of local investment impulses, which will lead to the failure of the monetary policy. The current inventory growth is fast, social inflation expectations are strong, and there is already a potential risk of overheating." Liu Yuanchun said. Imported inflation has intensified, and economic transformation and industrial upgrading must be further promoted. Data show that market sales have grown steadily in the first quarter, and sales of residential goods such as automobiles and furniture have cooled down. At the same time, international commodity prices have risen rapidly, and imported inflation has intensified, and the impact on economic growth across China cannot be ignored. "In response to this problem, we can only absorb the increase in costs through various means in the short term. In the long run, we must further promote economic transformation and industrial upgrading. At the same time, we must grasp the rhythm and extent of RMB appreciation and strengthen international monetary policy. Coordination and cooperation." Liu Yuanchun said. "The future economic growth has to rely on the intensive use of resources, the advancement of technology and the improvement of allocation efficiency, which is the proper meaning of structural adjustment." Ba Shusong believes. Yao Tongxin, deputy director of the China Strategic Research Center of Peking University, pointed out that the impact of rising commodity prices such as crude oil and iron ore on China's economic growth is still difficult to quantify. But we must stand at the height of the financial market, compete for the pricing power of international commodities, and fight the manipulation of commodity prices by international financial capital by designing our country's strong manufacturing capabilities into the form of financial derivatives. Only in this way can we ensure the long-term stable growth and economic security of our economy.