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In the month of June, Lun Aluminum stepped out of a wide range of volatility. Aluminum prices generally fluctuated between $1700-1,800/tonne. Among them, June 13 dropped to a low of 1,699 U.S. dollars per ton, and rose to 180.50 U.S. dollars per tonne on June 20. It closed at 1,733.5 U.S. dollars per tonne at the end of the month, down 31.5 dollars from May. Volume was 2,145,915 lots, an increase of 525,149 from May. Inventory was 526,150 tons, which was 24,375 tons less than that in May. In June, the fluctuation of Lum Aluminium was relatively large, showing a weaker sideways trend. This is closely related to the unsatisfactory operation of the world economic situation in June. In June, the world’s crude oil prices continued to rise rapidly. From the beginning of the month of US$51/tonne until the end of the month to nearly US$61, the rapid rise in oil prices once again triggered people’s concerns about the world economy. The Paris-based Bank for International Settlements warned on June 27th that the further rise in oil prices will bring a far-reaching blow to the global economy. The signs of rising inflation pressures that have appeared in the United States have further threatened the world economy. Relying on the previous quarter, the current account balance of international payments reached US$195.1 billion, a record high. This figure exceeds analysts' expected $190 billion, an increase of 3.6% over the previous quarter, and a record 6.4% of GDP. A report issued by the meeting committee of the famous American research institute on the 20th said that the leading economic index fell by 0.5% in May, which was the third consecutive month of decline. Although the economic form is not optimistic, given the impact of rising oil prices, domestic inflationary pressures have risen. In order to better control inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the ninth time on June 30, raising the benchmark interest rate of the federal government by 3.25% of 25 basis points. The unfavorable economic situation and the Fed’s raising interest rates again increased traders’ concerns about the U.S. economy, which in turn drove the U.S. stock market to fall quickly. The sluggish economic situation and the rapid fall of the stock market were the main reasons for the lacklustre rebound of London Aluminum in June. Another reason for the lacklustre performance of the London Aluminum Rising Act in June was that the US dollar continued to appreciate continuously throughout June, gradually rising from 87.75 at the beginning of the month to 89.15 at the end of the month. How will the trend of aluminum in July begin? First of all, we first analyze the factors that affect the trend of aluminum prices. The most important impetus for the rebound of London Aluminum in June was the driving role of copper prices. In particular, on June 16th, the London copper company hit record highs and played a significant role in promoting the popularity of the entire London metal market. However, since the beginning of June, copper has risen significantly weaker. Although the volatility is relatively large, the overall trend is gradually weakening. It is expected that Lun Copper will not be able to play an upward driving role in Lun Aluminum in July. On the contrary, once Lun Copper has fallen sharply, it will definitely further weaken Lun Aluminum. Despite the slight drop in oil prices at the end of June, the overall pattern of strength has not changed and head features have not yet emerged. It is expected that the possibility of a new record high in oil prices in July will pose a further threat to the United States and the world economy, and will become another factor in the weakening of London Aluminum in July. The United States Dow Jones index fell continuously in late June, and it has already formed a short-term head characteristic technically. It is expected that the US stock market will continue to fall in July and the stock market decline will play a certain negative role in the metal market. After a sustained appreciation of the U.S. dollar, it has reached a more critical point. The U.S. dollar index is already near 90. And near 90 is located at the top of the U.S. sideways consolidation in July-August 2004, and it is difficult for the U.S. dollar to break through this region easily. Although the pattern of the overall upward trend of the US dollar has not changed, it is more likely that the dollar will move sideways around 90 in July. Due to the sideways consolidation of the US dollar in July, it was difficult to make a significant bearish impact on Lum. In terms of supply and demand, although the gap in the world's primary aluminum has gradually decreased, there has been no surplus. The reduction in the gap will only cause the aluminum price to rise weakly. Only the continuous expansion of the international supply of electrolytic aluminum will lead to the bear market. At present, the world's primary aluminum production capacity has increased at a long-term, but most of them have been put into production after 2006. Therefore, it is difficult for electrolytic aluminum to have a significant surplus in 2005. After entering the macroeconomic situation in July, after the recession continued, the shortage of supply of primary aluminum in the world remains the main factor supporting the aluminum price in the weak. Another major factor supporting the price of Lun Aluminum in July was that the European electricity price rose again. The financial pressure on the aluminum smelters in the region has further increased, and some of the production capacity is facing closure. At present, the price of electricity in Germany, the Netherlands and France rose to 65 euros, 77.92 euros and 67 euros per thousand degrees respectively. Barrett Capital International analyst Sternba said that with the expiration of long-term contracts, Europe's annual capacity of 4.4 million tons of aluminum, 500,000 -100 million tons of capacity may face closure. Although some of the aluminum plants facing closure may end up renewing power supply contracts with local power suppliers, a considerable part of them seems to be unable to escape the fate of closure in the next 6-9 months. It is expected that the aluminum plant will continue to face closure due to high electricity prices in July and will become the main trigger for counterattack in July. In terms of technology, short-term fights after June, especially after the technical graphics of the small aluminum double bottom at the end of June were broken, the bears still dominated the market. However, Alluminium fell from the high point of March 11th to US$1713/tonne on June 30th, a cumulative drop of US$303, a drop in the release. Therefore, the space for Aluminium to continue to decline in the weak has become very limited. From the weekly chart, the current aluminum average system is in a clear short position, the relative strength index is located in the vulnerable area, and the parabolic stop loss index begins to be located in the bear market. Aluminium still has further impetus to decline. Combining fundamentals, it is expected that Lon aluminum is more likely to face a weaker sideways in July and is expected to fall to around 1650. The 1650 area is the 0.50 important support level for the golden section of the continuous rise in the market from the low point of 1287 on October 9, 2002 to March 11, 2005. It is also the bottom area of ​​the horizontal section from February 2004 to September 2004. Technically, Lun Aluminum will form a strong support.