Zhejiang minmetals huitong import and export Co., Ltd , https://www.zjminmetals.com
Shanghai Aluminum maintained a slight downward trend in the recent period, which was in contrast with the rebound of London Aluminum in the recent period and formed a clear contrast. Taking the Shanghai Aluminum Futures and London Aluminum price movements from June 14 to June 23 as an example, the futures aluminum price of the Shanghai August contract closed at 16,800 yuan/ton on June 14th and June 16th at 16,670 yuan/ton. Ton. London's three-month aluminum price closed at $1710/t on June 14 and $1746/t on June 23. Shanghai futures aluminum prices fell 130 yuan / ton, London aluminum rose 36 US dollars / ton. The author believes that the fundamental changes in the country have led to the formation of external strengths and weaknesses, and that the pattern of external strength and weakness will continue to dominate the aluminum market in the short term. First of all, the market expects that China will cancel preferential tariffs for alumina processing on July 1. At the same time, the aluminum ingot exports from domestic electrolytic aluminum plants are basically completed. With the approaching of the date, policy factors will cause the domestic aluminum electrolysis plant to suspend the export of aluminum ingots and re-invest sales in China, resulting in an increase in domestic supply in the short term. At the same time, in order to lock in profits and avoid risks, the production hedging of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants in Shanghai will result in an increase in futures selling. The increase in spot supply, the increase in futures selling, led to the continuous decline in Shanghai aluminum prices. However, due to the reduction in exports of China's aluminum ingots, which is a positive factor for London Aluminum, London Aluminum has shown a strong trend. Second, China has added 12 domestic electrolytic aluminum companies that import alumina by general trade. Among these 12 companies are large aluminium refining companies such as Liancheng Aluminum Plant in Lanzhou, Gansu, and Shandong Huaxin Aluminum. In addition to the previous eight companies that qualify for the import of furniture and alumina in general trade, this resulted in a total of 20 companies that have obtained alumina import licenses. It can be said that for aluminum smelting companies, this will reduce the procurement and circulation costs of raw materials, which in turn reduces production costs. The above two policy changes have changed the market's expectations and brought negative influence to Shanghai Aluminum. For London Aluminum, the two changes are more bullish. At the same time, in the recent period, under the intervention of the Fund, London Copper rose sharply. As a non-ferrous metal belonging to the same category, it was also led by copper. Therefore, it is not surprising that there is a divergence between domestic and international. For the market outlook, aluminum has entered the off-season consumption period, and aluminum sales have become weaker. The recent heavy rains in most parts of the country have caused severe flooding and severely affected the production of aluminum materials and logistics transportation. With increasing supply and declining demand, aluminum will face greater pressure in the short term. However, since the fund's speculation on London Copper has not yet ended, it means that London Aluminum has the potential to rise. Therefore, the pattern of strong short-term weakness will continue to dominate the aluminum market.