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The annual China Nonferrous Metals Industry Annual Meeting was held in Shanghai yesterday. Experts attending the meeting believe that oversupply has become a common problem in the whole industry of non-ferrous metals.
Yesterday, the annual China Nonferrous Metals Industry Annual Meeting was held in Shanghai. For the future development of the non-ferrous metals industry, an aluminum trader said with emotion, “The supply is seriously oversupplied but the demand has not improved, the cost of the whole industry has shifted downwards and will be colder next yearâ€. Regardless of the futures or spot market, the trend of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum and nickel is not optimistic.
On the 18th, the Lun copper 03 contract closed at $7,000. On the 19th, three-month copper closed at $6,693 per ton, down 0.67%. The closing price of the copper copper broke the 7,000-dollar mark, which made the bearish atmosphere strong. Fubao Information Lelianhua believes that copper prices will enter the bear road in the future, and the oversupply will at least put pressure on prices in the next three years.
Nickel price is the worst performing base metal this year. Nickel prices have been falling, and Nickel has fallen 6.83% since November and fell 1.44% overnight. The Indonesian government’s ban on nickel ore exports at the beginning of next year has become a major uncertainty in the market. It is expected that the impact on nickel prices will be smaller than expected, but it is difficult to continue to boost the price of nickel. Analysts believe that nickel prices will continue to operate in a bear market in the medium to long term due to the suppression of supply expectations and the decline in future consumption growth.
Oversupply is clearly a common problem in the whole industry of non-ferrous metals. According to London's November 18 news, the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) released data on Monday, showing that the global zinc market supply surplus of 38,000 tons in January-September 2013.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's refined copper output in October was 637,900 tons, up from the record of 620,000 tons in September; copper production in October increased by 22.9% compared with October 2012.
As the leader of non-ferrous metals, copper's future prospects are not optimistic. It is understood that Jiangxi Copper has negotiated the 2014 copper processing fee, an increase of 31% over the previous year. According to industry insiders, Jiangxi Copper's processing fee is often the industry benchmark. China is the world's largest copper processing country, and the increase in copper processing fees will help increase the income of smelting companies. However, the sharp increase in copper processing refining fees implies an increase in copper supply in the future. In 2014, copper price pressures such as the barrier lake covered the copper industry.
The copper concentrate processing fee refers to the process of refining crude copper into anode copper; and the refining fee is the process of turning the back anode copper into electrolytic copper. The increase in copper processing fees means that the increase in mine capacity exceeds the increase in smelting capacity, with the accompanying increase in copper production. According to Jim Lennon, senior consultant of commodities at Macquarie Bank, global copper supply has increased rapidly since 2012 and will reach a peak of over 477,000 tons in 2014. He is more pessimistic about the medium-term trend of copper prices. He believes that the price of copper prices starting from 2011 will continue until 2014, and the bottom price is expected to be around $6,500/ton.
Investors continue to weigh whether China's economic reform plan means an increase in demand for base metals in the short term. According to the new plan, the Chinese government will open up the financial sector and relax investment restrictions. The government is also committed to introducing a more market-oriented initial public offering. The stock market rose despite the positive effects of the reforms exceeding expectations. But Michael Turek, head of trading at Newedge Metals, a brokerage firm, said it looks like China's marketization process is progressing, but for the short-sighted metal market, it's too far away.
Abstract Experts said that although the stock market has risen due to the positive effects of the reforms exceeding expectations, it is too far away for the short-sighted metal market. The annual China Nonferrous Metals Industry Annual Meeting was held in Shanghai yesterday. Experts attending the meeting believe that oversupply has become a common problem in the whole industry of non-ferrous metals. Yesterday...
Experts said that although the stock market rose due to the positive effects of the reforms exceeding expectations, it is too far away for the short-sighted metal market.