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On July 17, China proposed to the World Trade Organization (WTO) that before the end of 2017, it will gradually ban the import of solid wastes in four categories including 24 categories of waste plastics . The policy will be implemented before the end of the year. Different from market perception, we believe that the short-term impact of prohibiting the import of waste plastics is small, the long-term effects are uncertain, and the overall impact is neutral.
The purpose of prohibiting the import of related types of solid waste is to block the transfer of primary processing pollution to the country. The four categories of import bans include waste plastics from living sources, vanadium slag, unclassified waste paper and waste textiles. Because of the generally recyclable solid waste, there are often many high-contamination wastes and hazardous wastes, which are environmentally hazardous. Therefore, the import of such raw materials is prohibited from having obvious environmental benefits.
The application of waste plastics in China has been around for a long time, and the industry has high policy risk attributes. Domestic waste plastics recycling and sorting and disposal have already formed a complete industrial system, which plays a very important role in waste reduction, but the overall development level is still far from the advanced countries in the world. The application of recycled plastics is also very common. Due to the high environmental risks, the state's efforts to control the industry are also increasing year by year, and the overall situation is tightening, and the supply side has been fully cleared.
In recent years, the import volume of waste plastics has stabilized at around 7.3 million tons, and the varieties are mainly PE and PET. In 2015-2016, domestic imports of waste plastics were 7.35 million tons. Among them, the proportion of PE and PET imports in 2016 was 34.5%. The proportions of styrene, vinyl chloride and other types were 1.3%, 6.1% and 23.7%, respectively. Among other products, the proportion of PP does not exceed 60%.
The short-term impact of the import of waste plastics is prohibited, and the long-term effects are uncertain. First, from a short-term perspective, the time window for policy implementation is at the end of this year, and normal raw material imports will not be affected immediately. Secondly, from a long-term perspective, it is assumed that imported waste plastics are all replaced by new materials. The new market demand for PE, PET and PP is about 10%, 6% and 4% respectively. Relatively speaking, PE market demand fluctuation rate is relatively large. However, the actual situation is affected by the implementation of the policy, and it is also affected by the accelerated development of the domestic renewable resources industry to fill the import gap. On the other hand, imported recycled plastic pellets are not prohibited. In short, recycled materials have their unique positioning and market space. There is no simple substitution relationship between the new materials and the market penetration of recycled materials. The overall impact of the policy is neutral.