It is the sorrow of the people in Hebei that the output of steel is falling down.

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on iron and steel production in various provinces and cities in January and February. Combined with the production data of provinces and cities at the end of last year, the author found that data fluctuations in Hebei Province, the largest province of steel production in China, were abnormal, such as January’s crude steel production The net increase of more than 700 million tons confirms the author's 'suppression' of the month-on-month increase in the total amount of crude steel in January. The huge fluctuation of Hebei's steel production once again is very similar to the end of 2009 at the beginning of 2010. This seems to reflect a certain 'regularity', is this true, or is it playing digital games? After this fog, what is hidden again makes people think deeply!

Hebei Iron and Steel Output Ups And Downs

As we all know, Hebei Province is China's largest steel producing province. Since 2006, the annual output of crude steel has accounted for 22% to 22% of the national total. However, abnormal fluctuations in output in recent months are puzzling. According to the national statistics, in January 2011, crude steel production in Hebei Province reached 16.31 million tons, a net increase of 7.05 million tons in December from the previous year. Changes in other major steel-producing provinces during the same period were relatively limited. From the production data for December last year, it can be seen that while the country’s total output and major steel producing provinces continued to rebound in the production of crude steel, the steel production in Hebei province unexpectedly declined. This is in contrast to the backdrop of the sharp rise in steel prices in November, the improvement in the profitability of steel mills and the improvement in production enthusiasm. According to the China United Iron and Steel Network, there were no major accidents or major overhauls in the production equipment of major steel companies in Hebei Province in December. In December of last year and January of this year, the output of crude steel was abnormal.

Major crude steel production in major provinces in recent months (10,000 tons)

National total

Hebei

Jiangsu

Shandong

Liaoning

Shanxi

November 2010

5017

1031

528

407

437

235

December 2010

5152

926

626

515

441

256

January 2011

5987

1631

578

618

452

251

February 2011

5431

1436

506

448

406

261

January ring net increase

835

705

-49

103

11

-5

Hebei crude steel daily output ring anomaly

According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, in January, the daily output of crude steel in Hebei Province reached 526,000 tons, which was an increase of 76% from the 299,000 tons in December last year, far higher than the growth rate of the national and other major provinces and cities in the same period. From the monthly increase of the monthly output of crude steel in Hebei and the country in 2009, it was found that the increase and decrease rate of the two rings was consistent and almost the same in most of the time. Only the steel ring ratios of Hebei Province in January, October and January of this year were compared. The increase was significantly higher than the national growth rate over the same period. In October 2010, the month-on-month increase was due to the relaxation of energy-saving and emission-reduction. The sharp increase in the first quarter of 2010 and 2011 was very embarrassing, but it has some striking similarities.

Anomaly ratio of crude steel in Hebei

As the country's largest steel producing province in Hebei, its output accounts for the proportion of crude steel production in the country also deserves attention. Statistics show that since 2008, the monthly output of Hebei's crude steel accounts for more than 21-25% of the national total, and the share of November 2009, September and December 2010 is less than 19%, of which 2010 The low proportion in September of this year was due to unprecedented energy saving and emission reduction in Hebei Province at that time, and the remaining two could not find corresponding objective reasons or reasons.

Obviously, no matter whether it is the absolute output value, the national share, or the quarter-on-quarter increase, the fluctuation of steel production in Hebei Province in December last year and in January and February of this year was very abnormal. It was unreasonable and could not withstand scrutiny. At the same time, it was found that the abnormal fluctuations in crude steel production in the province in the early two years were very similar. I could not help but wonder, imagine and guess whether it was Hebei Province that deliberately reported low production at the end of the last two years. To demonstrate Hebei's 'low profile' in a special time period?

Hebei is the largest steel producer in China, and its annual output accounts for more than 20% of the country's total output. Changes in its production data are directly related to changes in national production, related to the formulation of industrial policies by related departments, and the development of the entire Chinese steel industry. If the data of the first steel producing province are genuine or not, the sadness of the people is a worry for the development of the Chinese steel industry. I hope this is not a 'fog'!