OPEC: Oil will not increase production next year? Oil prices may rise again

After it was announced that Iran would hold a military exercise on the Strait of Hormuz, on December 13, international oil prices broke 100 US dollars per barrel, and continued to hover around 100 US dollars on December 14. On December 14, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting was officially held in Vienna to discuss whether it would set a cap for the total crude oil production of member countries next year. The previous day, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2012. In view of the current economic and geopolitical situation, investors once again expressed their concern about the rise in oil prices.

Market: Oil prices may rise again

OPEC issued a warning that the weak global economic outlook may mean that the oil market is facing a huge risk of instability in the coming year. In its monthly report, OPEC stated that as global manufacturing activity slows, economic turmoil is impacting oil demand.

Recently, some media broke the news that OPEC may agree at this meeting to "legalize" the current 30 million barrels per day, and not increase production next year. The outside world is concerned that if this statement becomes a reality, it may cause global crude oil prices to rise again.

In response, Liu Xintao, general manager of Hongye ** Company's Qingdao Sales Department, said in an interview with a reporter from the International Finance News that crude oil prices are currently operating at relatively high levels, and both macroeconomic downside risks and geopolitical upside risks exist at the same time. The import of related products creates a dilemma. The restriction of oil production by OPEC and other oil organizations is not the main factor in the rise in oil prices. Their reduction in production can only explain the fact that OPEC members insist that the global economy is facing downside risks. To ensure that oil prices are relatively high, they can only set a cap on output.

Liu Xintao said that in the coming period, crude oil prices will inevitably fluctuate violently, which is very thorny for investors. The bubble component of oil prices rising above US$100 is relatively large, and non-systematic risks such as Iran simply cannot be predicted.

Iran: It is not intended to strait

On December 14, the Iranian oil minister stated that Iran has no plan to close the Strait of Hormuz because of military exercises. Earlier, Iranian media quoted an Iranian parliament and the foreign policy committee member Palviz Soluli as saying that the country will hold a drill in the Strait of Hormuz in the near future in order to let the outside world understand Iran. With ** oil channel capabilities. The supply of petroleum in the Middle East accounts for 70% of the world's energy demand. Nearly 40% of the world’s oil and considerable quantities of natural gas are exported to the rest of the world from the Strait of Hormuz. Once the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, the entire world’s economy will be “abducted”. ".

Recently, the United States, Britain, Canada, and the European Union announced a new round of unilateral sanctions against Iran and directed the spearhead directly at the Iranian Central Bank and Iran’s economic lifeline oil industry, leading to continued tensions between Iran and the West. The commander of the Iranian Guards Force, Jaafari, stated in early July that the plan for the Strait of Hormuz has been included on the Iranian military’s agenda. However, he stressed that Iran will only fight the Strait of Hormuz in certain special circumstances or when Iran suffers. In recent years, Iran has held military exercises in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz every year. At the end of June this year, the Iranian Guards held a large-scale military exercise codenamed “The Great Prophet 6” in this sea area, and test-fired various models of domestic models such as the “Conqueror”, “Shaken” and “Meteor”. *.

Liu Xintao believes that judging from the current situation, because China and Russia are relatively tough, the United States will not take military measures in the Middle East for the time being.