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The impact of the carbon tax on the development of the industry will appear this year. "Australian carbon tax will push China's iron ore import cost more than 10 billion yuan." Carbon financial expert Wang Yigang told this reporter that according to his analysis, only the two major iron ore giants in Australia, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto's carbon In the calculation of tax cost, in the context of the strong position of the seller, if the tax is completely transferred, the import cost of iron ore in China will increase by 18.5 billion yuan. From July 1 this year, the Australian government will impose a carbon tax of 23 Australian dollars per ton on 500 high-carbon enterprises in Australia. Australia's carbon tax program is highly valued internationally and believes it is effective in tackling climate change, but experts are also concerned that the carbon tax costs of Australian mining companies can be easily passed on to downstream consumers. Especially the iron ore industry. However, Hanson, the China manager of the TSI Index, believes that the strong position of iron ore sellers this year is not obvious. “On the one hand, there are more and more emerging mines, and supply will be more and more. On the other hand, due to China’s real estate this year, The auto industry's sluggish expectations, so the steel mills did not have the urge to buy iron ore in large quantities." Han Xun told this reporter. Australian carbon tax or pushing up China's iron ore import cost According to Wang Yigang's analysis, China's iron ore import cost will increase only based on the carbon tax cost of Australia's two major iron ore giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto ("two extensions"). 18.5 billion yuan. How to calculate 18.5 billion yuan? Wang Yigang's calculation method is the carbon tax cost of “two extensionsâ€, multiplied by the proportion of “two extensions†of iron ore exported to China, divided by the iron ore import rate of China from Australia. First of all, the carbon tax cost of “two extensionsâ€. According to the information provided by the two companies' websites, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto's carbon emissions in 2010 were 47 million tons and 43.4 million tons respectively. Add the two, multiply by 23 AUD/ton carbon tax, and multiply by 6.8 (the recent Australian dollar exchange The RMB exchange rate), the carbon tax cost of the “two extensions†is 14.1 billion yuan. About half of the "two extensions" iron ore is exported to China, and about 38% of the iron ore imported from China comes from Australia, so that 14.1 billion yuan is multiplied by 50%, and then divided by 38%. The result is 18.5 billion yuan. The figure is the iron ore import cost that China has increased due to the “two extensions†carbon tax cost. "Australia can easily realize the cross-border transfer of carbon tax burden by using its dominant position in the international trade of iron ore." Wang Yigang said. Although the Australian Carbon Tax Program will provide 94.5% or 66% subsidies for emissions-intensive trade-competitive industries through the implementation of the Employment and Competitiveness Program, the Australian iron ore industry is not a subsidized trade-competitive industry. "Standards for trade competition assessment: First, the proportion of trade exceeds 10% in any year from 2004 to 2008. Second, it proves that it is incapable of transferring costs to consumers because of international competition. Iron ore exports do not meet the second. Standard." Wang Yigang said. According to the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China, in 2011, China imported 686 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 0.68 billion tons compared with 2010, an increase of 10.9%. The steel industry increased its foreign exchange due to the increase in imported iron ore prices. $25 billion. “Once Australia introduces a carbon tax, the “two extensions†will definitely increase prices, and Brazil’s Vale will also increase its price. Australia and Brazil have a “double-headed monopoly†pattern in iron ore exports. The market gap is not something that can be compensated. Wang Yigang told this reporter. "Iron ore will increase prices, but also depends on the negotiation situation, the relationship is complicated." Qian Guoqiang, strategic director of China Carbon Investment Co., Ltd. told this reporter. In addition to the carbon tax, the Minerals Resource Rent Tax is subject to implementation in the Australian Senate this year. It is scheduled to start on July 1 this year to levy a 30% mineral resource lease on the sales profits of iron ore and coal companies. tax. Australia’s mineral resource rent tax has a long-term intention to levy. As early as May 2010, the then Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd proposed to raise a “resource rent tax†of 40% for large and small miners to replace the floating of state governments. In the 2% to 10% "concession mining tax", this triggered the Australian economic community and the political "earthquake", Rudd also forced to resign under pressure. The successor Australian Prime Minister Gillard and the miners have initiated several rounds of negotiations to propose a new mineral resource lease tax proposal, which will impose a 30% mineral resource rent tax on all iron ore and coal companies with an annual profit of more than A$75 million. Once the mineral resource rent tax is implemented, it will form a certain high support for the iron ore and coal prices, and pass the cost to the downstream consumers. “The mineral resource rent tax will have less impact on China than the carbon tax. It will only be bigger." Wang Yigang told this reporter. It is worth noting that in addition to the increase in China's iron ore import costs, China's coal import costs will also increase. According to Everbright Securities (601788, shares) report, due to the increase in carbon tax, Australia's average tax per ton of coal increased carbon tax by AU$3. In 2010, China imported 36.963 million tons of coal from Australia. In 2010, imports from Australia accounted for 22.3% of China's total coal imports. However, "Since Australian coal has no obvious seller advantage in terms of importing to China, China can seek to replace the importing country, and China's coal self-sufficiency rate is higher." Wang Yigang pointed out. Can you learn from China's carbon tax cuts? Australia's carbon tax thinking can bring inspiration to China. “The Chinese government can have a carbon tax similar to the Australian carbon tax design for industries that have a large production capacity and a large capacity in the short term. Domestic carbon tax program." Wang Yigang pointed out. Australia’s carbon emissions account for 1.5% of the world’s share, and because of its relatively small population (22 million people), it has become the country with the highest per capita carbon emissions in developed countries, and it faces international carbon reduction pressures. The country has proposed a carbon tax scheme. In fact, from Rudd to Girard, the Australian carbon tax program has evolved. Rudd’s previously proposed carbon emissions trading scheme has been repeatedly blocked in the Australian Federal Parliament. The successor Girard made a compromise to change the way in which Rudd introduced the carbon trading mechanism in one step, step by step, first implement a fixed carbon price mechanism, and then introduce a carbon trading mechanism. In order to gain sufficient support, Gillard’s announced fixed carbon price plan also includes a series of compensation plans, including the government’s income of more than half of the fixed carbon price, and compensation for 90% of affected households through increased subsidies and tax cuts. And through the tax reform, people can get compensation without submitting a tax refund application. In addition, the Australian Carbon Tax Program will provide 94.5% or 66% subsidies for emissions-intensive trade-competitive industries through the implementation of the Employment and Competitiveness Program. Gillard's carbon tax program is mainly to obtain the support of the Australian Green Party and to win important political chips for participating in the 2013 general election. Most importantly, Australia has placed the “treasure†of carbon tax on China’s continued purchasing power. As far as the iron ore industry is concerned, the Australian government last year predicted that by June 2012, the country’s iron Ore exports will increase by 8% to 437 million tons. “In China’s dominant export industry, which has the world’s major production capacity, China has the opportunity to differentiate the invisible embedded carbon in export commodities through a domestic carbon tax scheme similar to the Australian carbon tax design. Not necessarily will lead to the loss of international competitiveness. The Chinese government can rethink this issue in the design of carbon tax." Wang Yigang pointed out.