Major crystalline silicon photovoltaic equipment manufacturers will experience negative growth this year

In 2011, China's solar cell equipment (mainly crystalline silicon solar cell equipment) was affected by the market of photovoltaic products, showing a trend of high and low, but the sales revenue of solar cell equipment in 2011 still achieved a high growth rate. In the first half of 2012, crystalline silicon solar equipment will still be operating at a low level, and will bottom out in the second quarter. In 2013, sales of crystalline silicon photovoltaic equipment in China will recover.

2011: Low sales revenue continues to grow after the market high

According to the statistics of 16 major manufacturers of crystalline silicon solar cell equipment in China, the sales volume of solar equipment reached 4,992 units in 2011, down 2.3% from 2010. Sales revenue reached 6.44 billion yuan, an increase of 75% over 2010.

China's 16 major solar cell equipment manufacturers, in 2011, crystalline silicon material growth processing equipment sales revenue reached 3.45 billion yuan, an increase of 30.7%, the growth rate dropped by 50.5 percentage points (including silicon single crystal furnace growth -36.3%, polysilicon casting Ingot furnace increased by 97.9%). The sales revenue of crystalline silicon solar cell chip manufacturing equipment reached 2.99 billion yuan, an increase of 187.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 147.7 percentage points.

In 2011, the export value of solar equipment manufacturers' solar equipment reached 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.8%.

2012: Sales are expected to decrease by nearly 20%

1. In the first half of this year, crystalline silicon solar equipment will still be operating at a low level, and will bottom out in the second quarter.

As China's PV product capacity expansion in 2011 is far greater than demand growth, resulting in serious oversupply, PV products still need to continue to digest inventories in the first half of this year, and PV enterprise investment plans will also be postponed, resulting in most PV equipment manufacturers still in the first half of this year. Running at a low level. From the economic operation of five major crystalline silicon photovoltaic equipment companies in the first quarter of this year, sales of crystalline silicon solar equipment decreased by 29.5% compared with the same period of last year, the lowest point in five quarters. It is expected that China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic equipment will bottom out in the second quarter of 2012.

2. Global photovoltaic power generation is expected to expand rapidly this year, the Chinese market will double, and domestic demand will drive the recovery of the photovoltaic equipment market.

As the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation is gradually approaching the price of thermal power, the global photovoltaic power generation is expected to expand rapidly this year. Recently, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) announced its forecast for the solar market before 2016. EPIA expects global installed capacity to expand to 35 GW in 2012, and China's PV market is expected to be at least 4 GW, and may even expand to 8 GW. Wu Dacheng, secretary-general of the PV Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, believes that the current enthusiasm for investing in photovoltaic power plants is quite high. It is expected that the installed capacity of photovoltaics in China this year may exceed 5 GW, double the amount of last year. The rapid expansion of domestic demand will drive the recovery of China's photovoltaic equipment market.

3. The upgrade and replacement of photovoltaic equipment will be the only bright spot in this year's market, and low-end equipment will withdraw from the market.

The price of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products has fallen avalanche in the past year, which has made the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic products and the cost of battery cells become the key to the competition of photovoltaic products enterprises. The first-line manufacturers of photovoltaic products have more urgent demand for high-end equipment. Therefore, the upgrade and replacement of photovoltaic equipment will be the only bright spot this year, and it is also the challenge faced by PV equipment manufacturers in China this year. Low-end photovoltaic equipment will be introduced to the market.

Tonnage grade polysilicon ingot furnace, high efficiency low energy consumption automatic silicon single crystal furnace, zone melting silicon single crystal furnace, efficient and reliable silicon wafer cutting equipment and a new generation of fully automated crystalline silicon solar cell production line equipment incorporating more advanced technology It will become the focus of equipment manufacturers' development and industrialization this year. The localization of advanced equipment can not only reduce the production cost of China's photovoltaic products, but also make the domestic PV equipment exports rapidly increase.

4. In 2013, sales of crystalline silicon photovoltaic equipment in China will recover.

The demand for crystalline silicon solar equipment is expected to rebound in the second half of this year, and equipment demand will initially come from some of the first-line PV product manufacturers (postponed delivery) and new orders. In order to gain more market share in 2013 and beyond, they will be revised.

The capacity expansion plan has led to a sequential increase in sales in the third quarter of 2012, and will resume sales growth of PV equipment manufacturers in the second half of 2012.

It is estimated that in 2012, the sales revenue of China's major crystalline silicon solar cell equipment manufacturers will show negative growth, and the total sales revenue will reach 5.5 billion yuan, down 15% to 20% compared with 2011.